* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * JERRY AL102025 10/07/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 55 60 63 64 64 61 59 57 54 52 47 42 40 38 36 V (KT) LAND 45 51 55 60 63 64 64 61 59 57 54 52 47 42 40 38 36 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 55 57 58 58 58 57 57 59 60 60 56 51 47 44 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 19 24 21 22 21 21 15 19 23 29 31 31 25 48 78 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 13 5 0 4 1 7 2 4 3 4 1 0 0 2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 299 293 293 302 305 303 307 298 303 284 297 302 319 325 313 277 256 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.4 28.5 27.2 27.8 27.1 26.2 26.1 25.0 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 152 155 155 158 159 158 161 159 145 128 135 127 118 117 106 107 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.2 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.6 -55.3 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 59 57 56 59 66 69 76 75 72 68 70 71 74 80 65 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 18 18 16 17 16 17 19 19 21 19 17 16 17 18 850 MB ENV VOR 8 0 -12 -20 -19 -23 -28 -18 9 42 20 -23 -12 -15 0 40 44 200 MB DIV 53 74 67 39 35 45 88 80 79 83 94 70 48 14 49 12 17 700-850 TADV -7 -10 0 0 3 -1 19 9 17 18 37 46 37 30 10 10 -5 LAND (KM) 1067 981 920 895 703 440 295 153 281 492 787 1067 1318 1314 1297 1162 987 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.4 12.9 13.6 14.2 15.7 17.4 18.9 20.8 23.1 25.8 28.3 30.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.4 47.3 49.3 51.1 53.0 56.3 58.9 61.1 62.7 63.4 63.5 63.2 62.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 20 19 19 18 16 14 12 12 13 13 12 13 18 18 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 34 35 39 47 54 57 62 61 61 53 32 20 12 5 3 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 25. 24. 23. 21. 19. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -13. -14. -16. -18. -19. -21. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -4. -2. -5. -9. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 8. 5. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 18. 19. 19. 16. 14. 12. 9. 7. 2. -3. -5. -7. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.8 45.4 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102025 JERRY 10/07/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 8.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.36 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.27 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.67 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.38 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.7 30.0 to 151.8 0.65 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 3.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 35.7% 21.7% 11.6% 7.8% 12.9% 13.8% 20.6% Logistic: 21.8% 33.2% 23.7% 18.2% 9.0% 9.3% 6.1% 10.8% Bayesian: 10.0% 53.9% 25.3% 6.7% 4.4% 7.2% 1.1% 1.1% Consensus: 13.3% 40.9% 23.5% 12.2% 7.0% 9.8% 7.0% 10.8% DTOPS: 11.0% 38.0% 15.0% 7.0% 6.0% 17.0% 3.0% 3.0% SDCON: 12.1% 39.4% 19.2% 9.6% 6.5% 13.4% 5.0% 6.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102025 JERRY 10/07/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102025 JERRY 10/07/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 51 55 60 63 64 64 61 59 57 54 52 47 42 40 38 36 18HR AGO 45 44 48 53 56 57 57 54 52 50 47 45 40 35 33 31 29 12HR AGO 45 42 41 46 49 50 50 47 45 43 40 38 33 28 26 24 22 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 39 39 36 34 32 29 27 22 17 15 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT