* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * JERRY AL102025 10/07/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 52 58 63 70 72 71 70 70 67 68 65 58 55 53 51 V (KT) LAND 40 46 52 58 63 70 72 71 70 70 67 68 65 58 55 53 51 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 49 52 55 60 62 65 67 70 73 74 71 62 56 51 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 12 18 20 13 19 15 13 11 24 25 32 31 40 68 84 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 8 3 0 9 8 7 3 6 -1 -1 0 2 0 -3 -16 SHEAR DIR 312 301 297 298 308 315 311 296 289 279 294 294 305 310 299 275 277 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.2 28.1 28.0 27.4 26.2 26.0 25.3 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 155 156 160 163 164 165 162 155 139 139 131 119 117 112 87 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -54.1 -53.9 -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 8 7 7 7 6 4 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 62 62 61 59 63 69 74 75 74 69 70 75 79 83 64 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 18 18 19 19 18 20 22 22 26 26 24 24 26 29 850 MB ENV VOR 18 7 1 -8 -12 -14 -19 -10 -8 23 22 6 17 -9 0 62 12 200 MB DIV 52 44 73 57 55 65 50 66 76 53 65 79 72 65 82 17 -2 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -11 -4 0 3 15 9 2 5 13 34 39 46 63 -36 -152 LAND (KM) 1143 1047 960 909 836 485 345 139 222 372 596 907 1284 1294 1263 1072 869 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 19 20 21 20 17 15 13 10 11 13 16 17 19 21 22 22 HEAT CONTENT 29 35 35 41 49 54 63 61 63 58 44 25 13 5 3 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 29. 30. 30. 30. 28. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -18. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 5. 5. 10. 9. 4. 4. 5. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 10. 14. 15. 12. 7. 3. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 18. 23. 30. 32. 31. 30. 30. 27. 28. 25. 18. 15. 13. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 11.3 43.8 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102025 JERRY 10/07/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 7.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.48 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.24 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.95 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 193.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.73 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.39 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 30.0 to 151.8 0.70 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 36.7% 21.8% 10.3% 7.7% 13.1% 13.9% 21.6% Logistic: 27.0% 36.4% 28.2% 20.0% 9.2% 10.1% 7.4% 8.7% Bayesian: 10.8% 30.9% 25.1% 5.4% 3.2% 8.5% 5.3% 4.4% Consensus: 15.0% 34.7% 25.0% 11.9% 6.7% 10.6% 8.9% 11.6% DTOPS: 6.0% 33.0% 10.0% 4.0% 3.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% SDCON: 10.5% 33.8% 17.5% 7.9% 4.8% 7.8% 6.9% 8.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102025 JERRY 10/07/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102025 JERRY 10/07/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 6( 6) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 46 52 58 63 70 72 71 70 70 67 68 65 58 55 53 51 18HR AGO 40 39 45 51 56 63 65 64 63 63 60 61 58 51 48 46 44 12HR AGO 40 37 36 42 47 54 56 55 54 54 51 52 49 42 39 37 35 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 35 42 44 43 42 42 39 40 37 30 27 25 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT