* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * NINE AL092025 09/28/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 43 48 59 68 75 75 74 65 60 51 42 35 31 27 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 43 48 59 68 75 75 74 65 60 51 42 35 31 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 39 45 51 56 59 59 56 49 40 32 26 21 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 8 9 15 15 17 22 16 21 29 44 55 63 65 61 51 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 0 1 0 -1 -3 1 2 5 15 11 4 7 0 3 1 -5 SHEAR DIR 234 247 178 165 186 199 216 227 246 230 240 244 252 250 237 237 233 SST (C) 30.5 30.2 30.0 29.7 29.6 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.6 28.4 28.2 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 170 171 169 164 162 150 145 141 140 139 134 133 135 144 141 139 120 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -51.5 -51.5 -51.0 -50.5 -50.1 -49.9 -50.2 -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 -51.2 -50.8 -51.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 8 5 5 3 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 66 64 62 60 57 52 53 55 55 56 45 34 25 22 24 28 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 18 22 23 24 26 28 29 33 32 34 33 33 34 34 32 850 MB ENV VOR 32 38 55 72 63 123 167 190 116 94 92 102 118 102 94 66 42 200 MB DIV 31 39 67 77 75 64 7 37 1 23 35 35 25 1 -4 16 -6 700-850 TADV 1 3 3 1 7 6 0 -6 0 1 -12 -20 0 -12 -3 -8 -3 LAND (KM) 104 44 16 30 126 200 222 305 387 423 459 523 677 764 807 865 821 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.5 24.3 25.3 26.3 27.8 29.2 30.1 30.2 30.6 31.0 31.3 31.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.0 77.3 77.5 77.8 78.0 78.3 78.5 78.0 77.0 75.8 74.5 72.7 70.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 10 9 7 6 4 5 6 7 9 9 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 72 75 80 78 72 60 51 46 40 29 23 21 18 15 13 13 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 6. 10. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. -4. -9. -16. -25. -33. -36. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 10. 14. 16. 20. 19. 21. 18. 17. 16. 16. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 13. 18. 29. 38. 45. 45. 44. 35. 30. 21. 12. 5. 1. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.7 77.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092025 NINE 09/28/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.68 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 75.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.49 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.80 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.40 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.8 30.0 to 151.8 0.75 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 16.9% 11.2% 8.0% 6.2% 11.4% 12.0% 18.5% Logistic: 3.3% 8.7% 4.8% 2.3% 0.5% 2.3% 2.2% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 8.6% 5.5% 3.5% 2.3% 4.6% 4.8% 6.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 18.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% SDCON: 2.2% 13.3% 4.7% 2.2% 1.6% 3.3% 3.4% 4.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092025 NINE 09/28/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092025 NINE 09/28/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 36 43 48 59 68 75 75 74 65 60 51 42 35 31 27 18HR AGO 30 29 33 40 45 56 65 72 72 71 62 57 48 39 32 28 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 33 38 49 58 65 65 64 55 50 41 32 25 21 17 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 36 45 52 52 51 42 37 28 19 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT