* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * NINE AL092025 09/28/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 46 54 67 77 81 80 76 66 59 49 39 28 22 18 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 46 54 67 77 81 80 76 66 59 49 39 28 22 18 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 34 37 42 50 57 63 66 67 64 57 46 37 29 23 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 15 12 8 15 15 19 19 18 25 35 48 56 62 61 52 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -1 0 1 -4 0 2 6 11 18 9 7 -1 -4 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 215 227 237 182 168 206 203 222 229 241 238 244 246 250 252 246 233 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.1 29.8 29.6 29.1 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.9 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 171 165 162 153 147 146 144 141 140 134 131 128 135 145 145 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -50.6 -50.2 -49.8 -50.1 -50.4 -50.9 -51.1 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.4 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 4 4 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 67 65 63 61 60 56 54 55 56 55 50 42 34 29 28 30 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 19 22 25 26 27 29 31 31 32 31 30 27 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR 30 30 35 51 67 68 165 184 182 99 95 81 84 74 52 50 29 200 MB DIV 43 33 41 89 91 47 39 24 8 18 38 49 35 -2 -10 7 17 700-850 TADV -2 2 2 4 2 11 1 -1 -9 6 0 -25 -14 -14 4 5 11 LAND (KM) 103 100 33 35 64 194 210 269 280 323 389 449 481 568 680 812 959 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 23.1 23.8 24.7 25.6 27.4 29.1 30.3 30.7 30.8 30.9 31.1 31.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.6 76.9 77.2 77.4 77.6 78.2 78.6 78.5 78.1 77.2 75.9 74.5 73.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 8 9 9 9 7 4 3 5 6 6 6 7 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 71 73 77 81 75 61 52 49 49 42 29 23 20 19 16 14 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 7. 10. 13. 15. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 4. 2. -2. -6. -12. -20. -28. -32. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 16. 18. 18. 18. 16. 13. 8. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 10. 15. 15. 12. 7. 3. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 16. 24. 37. 47. 51. 50. 46. 36. 29. 19. 9. -2. -8. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.4 76.6 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092025 NINE 09/28/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.72 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 75.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.49 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.81 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.41 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.3 30.0 to 151.8 0.76 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 34.8% 18.6% 9.9% 7.7% 13.0% 14.2% 20.3% Logistic: 10.5% 38.4% 26.9% 21.9% 8.8% 17.4% 8.6% 4.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 5.4% 2.3% 1.8% 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 26.2% 16.0% 11.2% 5.7% 10.4% 7.8% 8.1% DTOPS: 3.0% 29.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 12.0% SDCON: 4.3% 27.6% 10.5% 6.1% 3.3% 6.7% 4.9% 10.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092025 NINE 09/28/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092025 NINE 09/28/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 39 46 54 67 77 81 80 76 66 59 49 39 28 22 18 18HR AGO 30 29 34 41 49 62 72 76 75 71 61 54 44 34 23 17 DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 33 41 54 64 68 67 63 53 46 36 26 15 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 28 41 51 55 54 50 40 33 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT