* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * NINE AL092025 09/27/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 49 62 73 77 80 79 74 67 58 47 36 32 24 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 49 62 73 77 80 79 74 67 58 47 36 32 24 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 40 47 54 59 63 66 65 60 51 41 34 27 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 17 14 11 19 15 25 19 21 26 33 47 56 57 56 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 -1 2 -1 -1 0 0 7 10 14 7 0 -2 -5 -7 SHEAR DIR 216 212 228 228 189 194 198 217 215 235 239 244 245 253 256 256 260 SST (C) 30.3 30.5 30.3 30.0 29.8 29.4 29.0 29.1 29.3 28.9 28.5 28.3 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 170 169 165 158 151 151 153 147 142 139 131 131 133 131 134 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -51.8 -51.5 -51.1 -50.7 -50.4 -50.4 -50.6 -51.3 -51.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 5 3 3 2 1 1 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 67 68 65 63 61 58 54 51 51 51 52 45 36 30 28 26 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 15 17 19 23 25 25 28 30 31 31 29 28 25 25 22 850 MB ENV VOR 19 32 32 36 57 73 126 170 195 137 89 74 70 75 63 41 26 200 MB DIV 25 46 27 40 75 74 47 11 29 27 49 40 43 17 -1 -14 12 700-850 TADV -2 -4 0 4 6 9 5 4 -3 2 1 -1 -6 -5 -5 -3 6 LAND (KM) 84 113 63 11 18 158 194 216 233 251 319 390 431 475 540 611 680 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.7 23.3 24.1 24.9 26.6 28.4 29.9 30.6 30.9 31.0 31.0 31.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.5 76.8 77.2 77.4 77.7 78.1 78.6 78.9 79.0 78.3 77.0 75.7 74.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 8 9 9 9 6 3 4 6 5 4 4 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 71 73 75 81 80 70 57 51 52 52 42 29 24 23 22 20 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 7. 11. 14. 16. 16. 17. 18. 19. 18. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. -9. -16. -24. -28. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 13. 16. 19. 21. 20. 16. 12. 7. 7. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 12. 10. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 19. 32. 43. 47. 50. 49. 44. 37. 28. 17. 6. 2. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.1 76.5 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092025 NINE 09/27/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.67 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 76.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.49 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.33 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.3 30.0 to 151.8 0.77 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 16.9% 11.3% 8.3% 6.5% 11.3% 12.8% 19.5% Logistic: 7.0% 23.4% 14.1% 12.2% 4.8% 12.1% 12.1% 4.9% Bayesian: 1.3% 2.9% 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.5% 1.7% 0.1% Consensus: 3.8% 14.4% 8.7% 7.0% 3.8% 7.9% 8.9% 8.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 18.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% SDCON: 2.9% 16.2% 6.3% 4.0% 2.4% 4.9% 6.4% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092025 NINE 09/27/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092025 NINE 09/27/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 42 49 62 73 77 80 79 74 67 58 47 36 32 24 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 45 58 69 73 76 75 70 63 54 43 32 28 20 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 38 51 62 66 69 68 63 56 47 36 25 21 DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 27 40 51 55 58 57 52 45 36 25 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT