* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * NINE AL092025 09/27/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 43 49 63 74 81 82 79 72 63 53 41 32 23 N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 43 49 63 74 81 82 79 72 63 53 41 32 23 N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 39 47 54 60 62 63 62 57 48 38 28 20 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 15 19 15 18 20 27 20 22 32 46 61 73 72 67 68 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -4 -3 -2 3 -3 0 6 8 13 16 8 0 -3 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 238 220 216 221 218 179 205 208 227 238 238 235 237 248 252 254 264 SST (C) 30.1 30.4 30.4 30.1 29.8 29.5 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.3 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 170 171 165 160 150 149 151 153 155 153 144 139 134 133 133 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -51.5 -51.3 -50.5 -50.4 -50.0 -50.2 -50.3 -50.6 -51.0 -51.3 -52.0 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.6 1.3 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 4 4 2 1 0 1 0 1 2 700-500 MB RH 63 67 67 65 62 61 56 53 53 53 57 54 45 42 40 37 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 16 16 18 23 26 28 31 31 32 33 31 31 31 29 27 850 MB ENV VOR 4 15 28 28 36 70 80 153 182 152 108 125 98 58 15 -20 -45 200 MB DIV 5 19 44 29 43 93 34 44 35 15 38 47 53 -14 -55 -63 -60 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 1 4 3 12 4 2 0 12 5 5 -12 -26 -31 -25 LAND (KM) 91 136 124 62 53 112 222 221 249 199 172 200 267 317 348 399 472 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.6 23.1 23.9 24.6 26.1 27.9 29.6 30.7 31.3 31.6 31.6 31.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.0 76.3 76.6 76.9 77.2 77.6 78.1 78.7 78.7 78.6 78.6 78.1 77.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 7 4 2 1 3 4 3 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 71 72 74 78 81 72 59 51 52 51 47 50 47 36 27 23 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 3. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 19. 19. 18. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 1. -1. -4. -9. -15. -25. -34. -40. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 21. 22. 23. 22. 19. 17. 16. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 13. 10. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 19. 33. 44. 51. 52. 49. 42. 34. 23. 11. 2. -7. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.0 76.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092025 NINE 09/27/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.66 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 75.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.48 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.21 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.81 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.26 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.5 30.0 to 151.8 0.77 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 17.0% 11.6% 8.8% 6.9% 11.6% 12.2% 17.5% Logistic: 7.4% 21.5% 13.6% 15.4% 6.5% 20.9% 16.2% 5.8% Bayesian: 1.4% 2.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.6% 1.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 13.6% 8.6% 8.2% 4.5% 11.0% 9.8% 7.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 16.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 9.0% SDCON: 2.6% 14.8% 6.3% 4.6% 2.2% 6.5% 5.9% 8.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092025 NINE 09/27/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092025 NINE 09/27/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 38 43 49 63 74 81 82 79 72 63 53 41 32 23 DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 34 39 45 59 70 77 78 75 68 59 49 37 28 19 DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 37 51 62 69 70 67 60 51 41 29 20 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 26 40 51 58 59 56 49 40 30 18 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT