* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * NINE AL092025 09/27/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 47 61 73 80 81 80 74 67 59 49 39 33 31 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 47 61 73 80 81 80 74 67 59 49 39 33 31 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 38 46 54 59 62 62 59 55 49 41 32 24 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 11 14 19 12 20 22 31 22 29 44 57 66 68 65 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 0 -2 -4 2 0 -1 0 4 6 6 3 -2 -6 0 5 SHEAR DIR 229 233 222 223 223 188 206 204 225 226 247 240 239 253 262 264 261 SST (C) 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.1 29.5 29.1 28.4 28.9 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 166 169 170 170 170 159 153 142 149 155 156 154 155 154 152 150 147 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -51.5 -51.5 -50.7 -50.5 -50.0 -49.9 -49.9 -50.2 -51.1 -51.6 -52.1 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 64 64 66 66 64 63 60 61 54 56 56 58 49 42 40 38 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 15 16 21 25 27 28 30 30 30 29 30 29 30 33 850 MB ENV VOR 7 6 14 24 24 61 74 130 166 172 120 108 118 63 -26 -37 -62 200 MB DIV 10 10 39 57 40 77 67 30 5 25 29 43 41 26 -20 -24 -25 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -2 -5 1 4 10 10 8 0 7 18 17 5 -2 -3 5 LAND (KM) 55 94 127 139 93 91 202 264 270 180 147 145 168 178 187 184 188 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.0 22.4 23.2 23.9 25.3 26.9 29.0 30.6 31.5 32.0 32.2 32.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.6 75.9 76.2 76.4 76.6 77.1 77.4 78.0 78.5 78.6 78.4 78.2 77.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 8 7 8 10 9 7 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 HEAT CONTENT 71 71 72 73 76 76 63 51 51 48 40 37 40 38 41 41 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 3. 7. 12. 15. 17. 17. 18. 20. 20. 19. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 1. -2. -5. -8. -14. -23. -31. -36. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 15. 18. 21. 23. 23. 22. 20. 18. 17. 16. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 11. 9. 5. 2. -1. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 31. 43. 50. 51. 50. 44. 37. 29. 19. 9. 3. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.6 75.6 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092025 NINE 09/27/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.66 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 72.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.47 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.81 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.28 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 30.0 to 151.8 0.77 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 14.8% 9.9% 7.3% 5.8% 10.7% 12.3% 18.8% Logistic: 3.5% 8.7% 4.3% 2.7% 0.8% 5.5% 10.8% 5.1% Bayesian: 1.1% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% Consensus: 2.2% 8.4% 4.9% 3.4% 2.2% 5.6% 7.9% 8.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 15.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% SDCON: 2.1% 11.7% 4.9% 2.2% 1.6% 3.8% 5.4% 5.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092025 NINE 09/27/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092025 NINE 09/27/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 42 47 61 73 80 81 80 74 67 59 49 39 33 31 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 43 57 69 76 77 76 70 63 55 45 35 29 27 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 36 50 62 69 70 69 63 56 48 38 28 22 20 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 39 51 58 59 58 52 45 37 27 17 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT