* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * NINE AL092025 09/27/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 46 56 68 73 76 71 64 57 47 40 33 24 16 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 46 56 68 73 76 71 64 57 47 35 33 24 23 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 37 39 46 54 60 62 59 55 49 42 33 32 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 12 11 14 16 19 26 33 30 29 40 46 56 62 61 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -1 0 -2 -1 5 -3 0 0 6 1 3 -7 -9 -8 -3 SHEAR DIR 231 225 241 237 219 217 189 212 203 228 229 228 230 253 258 260 257 SST (C) 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.4 30.3 29.6 29.4 28.5 29.3 28.5 28.1 27.5 26.6 26.5 26.7 26.7 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 169 170 170 161 158 144 156 141 133 126 115 113 116 117 116 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.1 -51.5 -51.4 -50.9 -50.8 -50.8 -50.8 -51.4 -51.4 -51.9 -52.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 9 8 7 6 5 2 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 65 64 65 67 62 61 56 53 53 52 55 57 47 41 32 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 12 16 21 23 26 26 26 25 22 22 22 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 9 5 -1 5 19 31 60 62 115 141 93 92 98 84 47 -56 -75 200 MB DIV 14 -1 1 29 54 49 74 29 45 -5 22 25 35 43 -21 -14 -22 700-850 TADV -8 -5 0 0 -4 6 4 15 12 10 -4 3 3 -3 -19 -25 -6 LAND (KM) 23 69 105 148 99 49 152 229 222 108 93 65 2 -12 22 17 -41 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.8 22.2 22.8 23.4 25.0 26.5 28.6 30.8 31.8 31.9 32.1 32.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.6 75.9 76.2 76.4 76.7 77.4 77.7 78.3 79.0 79.5 79.6 79.8 80.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 6 8 8 9 11 9 3 1 2 2 0 1 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 72 71 71 73 75 81 69 54 52 27 23 16 11 11 12 12 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 3. 7. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 19. 18. 17. 15. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -4. -7. -10. -15. -22. -30. -34. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 11. 14. 18. 18. 17. 16. 10. 9. 8. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 11. 9. 5. 2. -1. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 26. 38. 43. 46. 41. 34. 27. 17. 10. 3. -6. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.3 75.6 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092025 NINE 09/27/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.64 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 72.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.47 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.22 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.7 30.0 to 151.8 0.77 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 21.6% 12.7% 9.6% 7.4% 12.3% 13.5% 18.7% Logistic: 9.6% 23.5% 16.3% 15.9% 5.5% 21.3% 22.5% 11.3% Bayesian: 1.8% 9.6% 3.5% 4.2% 0.8% 2.5% 4.6% 0.2% Consensus: 5.5% 18.2% 10.8% 9.9% 4.5% 12.0% 13.6% 10.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092025 NINE 09/27/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092025 NINE 09/27/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 41 46 56 68 73 76 71 64 57 47 35 33 24 23 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 42 52 64 69 72 67 60 53 43 31 29 20 19 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 35 45 57 62 65 60 53 46 36 24 22 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 35 47 52 55 50 43 36 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT