* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * NINE AL092025 09/26/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 49 59 69 75 77 75 68 52 40 33 24 18 N/A V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 49 59 69 75 77 75 68 52 40 33 24 18 N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 38 40 47 54 60 63 62 57 48 42 38 35 29 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 17 16 11 19 16 27 27 30 18 30 34 46 60 70 72 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 1 -1 1 0 5 0 0 -3 0 5 1 -3 -6 -5 -7 SHEAR DIR 264 233 241 249 228 220 190 209 197 215 233 252 230 248 253 252 250 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.0 29.4 28.9 28.6 29.4 28.5 28.0 28.0 28.7 29.5 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 168 169 170 169 158 150 146 156 140 132 132 143 156 154 153 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.2 -51.6 -51.2 -51.0 -50.8 -50.9 -51.4 -52.0 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.7 -0.2 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 9 10 8 8 6 6 4 5 3 3 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 64 64 63 65 65 62 59 53 51 51 51 55 52 47 44 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 12 13 17 20 24 26 27 25 18 13 11 9 8 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 5 1 -3 6 26 53 72 100 130 155 86 70 76 78 41 0 200 MB DIV 37 34 3 11 30 39 94 39 67 19 12 13 30 20 0 -27 -23 700-850 TADV -5 -8 -3 -1 0 -1 6 10 16 14 4 0 -4 -10 -13 -24 -26 LAND (KM) 34 64 79 114 143 93 115 269 283 165 103 74 69 102 152 184 170 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 6 4 6 8 9 11 11 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 70 71 71 71 72 77 71 59 49 47 28 21 18 23 38 42 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 21. 21. 20. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -3. -5. -7. -10. -15. -22. -28. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 19. 20. 17. 6. -3. -6. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 13. 11. 6. 2. -1. -4. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 19. 29. 39. 45. 47. 45. 38. 22. 10. 3. -6. -12. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.7 74.4 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092025 NINE 09/26/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.58 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 71.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.46 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.28 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.81 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.24 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 30.0 to 151.8 0.76 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 17.1% 11.8% 8.9% 6.8% 11.6% 12.9% 18.3% Logistic: 7.4% 19.4% 12.7% 13.6% 4.7% 15.3% 18.9% 9.9% Bayesian: 1.7% 4.6% 1.2% 0.9% 0.2% 1.0% 3.1% 0.4% Consensus: 4.5% 13.7% 8.6% 7.8% 3.9% 9.3% 11.6% 9.5% DTOPS: 2.0% 20.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 3.0% SDCON: 3.2% 16.8% 6.8% 4.4% 2.4% 6.1% 6.8% 6.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092025 NINE 09/26/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092025 NINE 09/26/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 43 49 59 69 75 77 75 68 52 40 33 24 18 DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 44 54 64 70 72 70 63 47 35 28 19 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 37 47 57 63 65 63 56 40 28 21 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 26 36 46 52 54 52 45 29 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT