* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL942025 09/26/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 51 59 62 67 65 57 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 29 30 32 35 43 54 62 65 69 68 45 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 28 29 30 32 36 40 44 46 47 46 34 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 12 12 14 17 10 18 17 29 28 38 15 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 0 1 0 4 -1 4 0 5 -6 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 280 276 263 239 235 216 218 192 215 201 201 229 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.0 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.2 29.9 29.4 28.7 28.4 27.8 25.8 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 169 166 166 168 170 167 159 148 143 134 111 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 -51.4 -51.0 -50.8 -50.6 -51.2 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.3 1.1 0.5 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 8 7 6 4 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 63 63 63 63 64 62 59 53 51 52 53 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 14 18 20 21 25 25 20 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 8 7 11 5 19 32 56 57 105 129 101 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 29 30 22 0 42 65 60 35 95 36 -4 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -6 -7 -2 -2 1 7 10 20 25 7 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -15 51 43 61 81 154 144 153 309 319 66 -104 -176 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 6 6 6 8 10 12 12 10 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 82 73 70 70 71 71 73 68 57 49 15 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 14. 19. 22. 23. 24. 25. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. -1. -6. -7. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 8. 11. 12. 17. 17. 9. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 26. 34. 37. 42. 40. 32. 23. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.8 72.9 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942025 INVEST 09/26/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.62 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 73.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.47 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.24 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.7 30.0 to 151.8 0.81 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 15.8% 10.6% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 0.0% Logistic: 6.2% 25.2% 15.9% 12.0% 5.4% 20.2% 14.3% 17.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.8% Consensus: 3.3% 14.3% 9.0% 6.7% 1.8% 6.8% 9.0% 5.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 2.1% 8.1% 5.0% 3.3% 0.9% 3.4% 4.5% 3.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942025 INVEST 09/26/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942025 INVEST 09/26/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 30 32 35 43 54 62 65 69 68 45 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 30 38 49 57 60 64 63 40 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 34 45 53 56 60 59 36 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 26 37 45 48 52 51 28 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT