* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL942025 09/26/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 29 34 44 53 61 58 60 56 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 34 44 53 60 58 60 56 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 33 36 37 37 36 32 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 16 11 11 14 16 21 21 31 36 38 27 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 0 1 -1 -1 1 4 1 6 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 281 282 286 261 234 242 207 208 197 209 198 208 210 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.2 28.7 28.4 29.4 28.7 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 165 167 168 168 168 165 155 147 142 157 142 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -51.9 -51.1 -51.1 -51.0 -50.4 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.1 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 5 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 62 63 64 61 64 56 55 51 54 55 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 11 15 18 22 21 24 22 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 4 -6 -8 -1 -19 20 39 65 72 151 153 178 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 43 11 36 27 11 68 53 65 28 44 4 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -8 -6 -8 -7 0 0 9 10 16 25 25 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 102 26 23 93 158 235 158 175 304 323 174 121 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 7 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 68 67 68 69 69 68 71 65 56 47 45 23 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 14. 18. 21. 22. 24. 25. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -4. -9. -12. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 12. 16. 13. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 19. 28. 36. 33. 35. 31. 23. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.7 72.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942025 INVEST 09/26/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.64 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 68.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.44 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.19 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.26 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.4 30.0 to 151.8 0.80 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 13.2% 8.8% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 7.5% 4.1% 2.8% 0.8% 5.8% 7.0% 6.4% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 1.5% 7.0% 4.3% 3.1% 0.3% 2.0% 6.1% 2.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% SDCON: 0.7% 4.0% 2.1% 1.5% 0.1% 1.0% 3.0% 2.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942025 INVEST 09/26/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942025 INVEST 09/26/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 27 28 34 44 53 60 58 60 56 48 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 32 42 51 58 56 58 54 46 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 29 39 48 55 53 55 51 43 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 22 32 41 48 46 48 44 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT