* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL942025 09/25/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 34 42 53 59 63 67 59 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 34 42 53 59 63 67 59 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 27 29 32 35 38 40 40 35 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 12 14 12 15 20 15 24 27 36 35 34 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 286 263 256 245 246 240 201 208 187 211 199 193 195 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.0 29.6 29.0 28.8 29.3 27.3 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 167 166 168 170 169 161 152 148 156 126 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 -51.6 -50.9 -50.4 -50.5 -50.2 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.3 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 10 10 9 10 9 8 6 5 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 62 63 61 60 62 62 56 51 49 48 52 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 13 15 19 22 26 29 26 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 3 6 0 -1 -3 15 55 65 74 77 121 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 34 35 39 47 6 55 80 74 39 66 11 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -8 -7 -6 -5 -2 3 4 9 18 35 26 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 69 56 24 77 142 199 95 62 196 198 202 50 -38 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 7 6 6 7 7 8 10 10 9 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 69 68 68 69 69 70 79 80 65 55 52 16 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 829 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 14. 19. 22. 23. 25. 27. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -4. -9. -12. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. 2. 5. 9. 13. 19. 23. 17. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 3. 9. 17. 28. 34. 38. 42. 34. 22. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.5 71.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942025 INVEST 09/25/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.63 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 68.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.44 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.15 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 120.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.80 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.31 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.3 30.0 to 151.8 0.81 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 16.1% 10.9% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 3.5% 2.2% 1.2% 0.2% 1.9% 1.3% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 6.5% 4.4% 3.1% 0.1% 0.7% 4.3% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% SDCON: 0.8% 3.7% 2.2% 1.5% 0.0% 0.3% 2.1% 2.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942025 INVEST 09/25/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942025 INVEST 09/25/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 28 34 42 53 59 63 67 59 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 33 41 52 58 62 66 58 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 29 37 48 54 58 62 54 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 22 30 41 47 51 55 47 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT