* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL942025 09/25/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 32 40 51 59 70 72 80 87 84 73 67 64 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 26 27 33 41 34 38 45 52 49 38 32 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 25 26 30 34 30 33 37 41 42 40 39 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 12 10 14 15 16 13 9 9 13 12 12 12 14 14 4 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -3 0 -1 0 0 4 -2 3 5 1 0 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 298 292 266 251 264 241 247 202 185 159 142 120 57 33 31 31 292 SST (C) 29.7 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.8 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.1 29.9 29.4 29.2 29.5 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 170 169 171 170 169 168 167 167 169 171 168 158 154 161 160 160 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 7 8 8 8 6 700-500 MB RH 62 61 62 61 60 63 61 67 64 63 55 59 62 58 49 48 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 8 10 14 16 22 20 22 26 23 17 12 8 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -4 11 18 11 35 40 54 58 79 81 91 25 -34 -48 -17 -7 200 MB DIV -6 34 39 44 24 9 21 55 37 29 21 25 38 23 -1 20 5 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -8 -8 -4 -6 -3 -6 -2 -1 1 -1 7 6 -1 4 1 LAND (KM) 18 102 27 20 31 -42 -31 11 12 -50 53 189 267 405 595 816 806 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.7 20.9 20.8 20.8 20.6 20.2 19.8 19.8 20.5 21.6 22.8 23.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.7 72.0 72.9 73.8 74.6 75.9 76.8 77.1 77.2 76.6 75.7 74.0 72.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 8 8 7 5 3 2 2 5 9 10 8 7 11 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 69 68 68 70 71 78 85 86 86 82 72 66 59 49 42 36 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 800 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 31. 35. 37. 38. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 2. 6. 8. 15. 12. 14. 18. 14. 4. -3. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 15. 26. 34. 45. 47. 55. 62. 59. 48. 42. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.0 70.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942025 INVEST 09/25/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.63 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 69.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.45 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.10 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.80 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.26 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.85 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 13.4% 8.9% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 4.6% 2.8% 1.8% 0.3% 3.7% 7.2% 25.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.4% Consensus: 1.0% 6.0% 3.9% 2.8% 0.1% 1.2% 6.2% 9.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.5% 3.5% 1.9% 1.4% 0.0% 0.6% 3.1% 4.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942025 INVEST 09/25/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942025 INVEST 09/25/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 28 26 27 33 41 34 38 45 52 49 38 32 29 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 25 26 32 40 33 37 44 51 48 37 31 28 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 21 22 28 36 29 33 40 47 44 33 27 24 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT