* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL942025 09/25/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 37 45 54 65 72 78 80 80 75 66 60 59 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 26 33 42 50 45 57 63 65 65 59 51 45 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 30 33 37 34 43 49 54 57 59 59 57 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 22 14 11 15 11 12 5 6 10 9 8 13 14 19 25 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 1 -1 -1 0 0 1 0 -4 0 -2 0 2 4 12 SHEAR DIR 274 289 284 256 257 271 250 231 207 121 117 59 34 46 346 355 353 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.1 30.5 30.6 30.4 30.4 30.2 30.0 29.6 29.2 29.4 29.1 27.7 26.5 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 166 168 166 170 170 169 168 166 169 169 162 157 161 158 140 128 97 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 3 0 700-500 MB RH 68 64 63 62 64 63 64 65 65 63 63 66 66 60 60 65 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 11 13 14 19 20 22 21 20 17 13 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 26 12 13 23 23 29 44 50 55 74 134 85 68 65 78 130 147 200 MB DIV -2 -3 29 49 25 26 30 60 69 30 63 46 25 81 119 103 87 700-850 TADV -8 -3 -3 -4 -2 0 0 0 0 1 0 4 2 -6 28 85 71 LAND (KM) -21 -57 -62 -35 -27 7 30 13 -7 37 173 443 776 1191 1277 1083 946 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.0 19.3 19.4 19.5 19.7 19.8 19.9 20.3 21.4 22.8 24.5 26.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.1 70.2 71.0 71.6 72.3 73.5 74.4 74.8 74.5 73.8 72.5 70.4 68.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 7 6 7 5 3 1 4 8 10 14 16 22 33 43 50 HEAT CONTENT 68 71 74 79 86 82 75 75 72 69 63 48 40 22 10 6 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 9. 16. 21. 25. 29. 32. 35. 38. 37. 37. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 12. 14. 15. 13. 10. 5. -0. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 12. 20. 29. 40. 47. 53. 55. 55. 50. 41. 35. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.6 69.1 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942025 INVEST 09/25/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.53 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 75.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.49 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.23 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.6 30.0 to 151.8 0.85 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 14.3% 9.5% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 9.1% 5.6% 3.4% 1.0% 4.9% 10.5% 28.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 1.5% Consensus: 1.7% 8.0% 5.1% 3.5% 0.3% 1.7% 7.7% 10.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.3% 4.5% 3.0% 1.7% 0.1% 0.8% 3.8% 5.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942025 INVEST 09/25/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942025 INVEST 09/25/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 26 26 33 42 50 45 57 63 65 65 59 51 45 44 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 25 32 41 49 44 56 62 64 64 58 50 44 43 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 28 37 45 40 52 58 60 60 54 46 40 39 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 22 31 39 34 46 52 54 54 48 40 34 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT