* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL942025 09/25/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 30 37 46 56 63 73 75 78 75 71 68 70 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 24 25 26 36 44 54 51 62 64 66 64 59 56 58 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 23 24 26 30 33 37 36 42 47 50 54 58 60 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 27 24 15 13 16 13 10 6 2 10 8 8 13 8 30 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -3 1 2 -2 0 -1 2 1 4 -2 0 -3 2 6 14 SHEAR DIR 264 270 279 282 266 269 267 267 211 251 126 118 83 357 23 329 252 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.9 30.6 30.5 30.5 30.3 30.0 29.6 29.3 29.1 28.7 26.9 14.2 POT. INT. (KT) 170 168 167 170 170 170 169 168 167 169 169 163 159 157 154 132 76 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 2 0 700-500 MB RH 66 68 64 63 64 63 64 64 68 66 67 65 72 71 68 68 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 7 10 12 15 17 21 19 18 16 16 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 34 23 20 27 28 35 41 59 54 85 120 102 97 108 153 220 200 MB DIV 0 0 7 13 31 27 31 29 63 35 40 44 71 79 137 240 55 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -6 -4 -4 0 -4 -2 -2 1 1 0 6 -1 -12 159 177 LAND (KM) 56 26 17 -26 -56 -13 49 47 24 -22 44 162 473 862 1128 955 476 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.0 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.6 19.7 20.2 21.3 22.7 24.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.7 68.8 69.7 70.5 71.2 72.6 73.8 74.7 75.0 74.9 74.0 72.5 70.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 3 1 5 8 12 16 21 31 43 47 HEAT CONTENT 73 69 70 73 78 98 84 77 77 74 69 64 47 33 15 7 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 9. 16. 21. 25. 29. 33. 36. 39. 39. 39. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 8. 10. 15. 10. 9. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 12. 21. 31. 39. 48. 50. 53. 50. 46. 43. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.8 67.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942025 INVEST 09/25/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.45 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 72.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.47 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.82 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.18 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.87 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 13.5% 9.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 3.2% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 3.4% 7.8% 26.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.8% Consensus: 1.1% 5.7% 3.5% 2.6% 0.1% 1.1% 6.3% 9.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.5% 2.8% 1.7% 1.3% 0.0% 0.5% 3.1% 4.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942025 INVEST 09/25/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942025 INVEST 09/25/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 24 25 26 36 44 54 51 62 64 66 64 59 56 58 18HR AGO 25 24 25 23 24 25 35 43 53 50 61 63 65 63 58 55 57 12HR AGO 25 22 21 19 20 21 31 39 49 46 57 59 61 59 54 51 53 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 17 27 35 45 42 53 55 57 55 50 47 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT