* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL942025 09/24/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 33 37 42 45 48 49 53 54 55 55 57 59 V (KT) LAND 25 25 23 26 27 30 27 34 37 40 41 45 46 47 47 49 51 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 23 26 26 24 25 29 30 32 33 34 35 36 37 41 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 26 25 28 25 15 19 14 13 17 17 21 15 17 6 7 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 1 1 0 -3 0 -2 2 0 5 1 0 4 3 2 SHEAR DIR 283 278 267 264 277 269 269 246 256 209 226 195 184 145 95 58 18 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.0 29.7 30.0 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 29.6 29.4 29.5 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 164 166 169 169 163 168 164 168 169 169 169 168 169 162 159 161 156 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 63 63 65 65 63 64 64 65 65 69 66 69 62 63 67 64 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 5 5 5 7 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 15 26 25 9 20 12 14 7 24 9 33 84 110 104 56 17 200 MB DIV -11 0 -8 -4 -19 18 12 4 15 19 20 45 28 44 67 63 18 700-850 TADV -3 0 -5 -7 -7 -4 -3 -3 0 -4 1 0 0 3 13 14 6 LAND (KM) 16 9 -25 48 3 1 -23 53 53 33 70 116 194 199 312 556 840 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.3 19.7 20.2 20.5 20.9 21.3 22.0 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.0 66.0 66.9 67.7 68.5 69.7 71.0 72.0 73.1 74.0 74.9 75.1 74.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 5 9 11 12 16 HEAT CONTENT 72 74 75 71 68 69 71 72 71 70 71 71 69 64 59 52 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 10. 17. 22. 27. 31. 34. 38. 41. 42. 43. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 12. 17. 21. 23. 24. 28. 29. 30. 30. 32. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.6 65.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942025 INVEST 09/24/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.33 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 72.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.46 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.81 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.8 30.0 to 151.8 0.84 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 11.5% 7.7% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 2.7% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 1.5% 4.3% 13.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 4.8% 3.0% 2.2% 0.1% 0.5% 4.4% 4.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.6% 2.4% 1.5% 1.1% 0.0% 0.2% 2.2% 2.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942025 INVEST 09/24/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942025 INVEST 09/24/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 23 26 27 30 27 34 37 40 41 45 46 47 47 49 51 18HR AGO 25 24 22 25 26 29 26 33 36 39 40 44 45 46 46 48 50 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 25 28 25 32 35 38 39 43 44 45 45 47 49 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 16 23 26 29 30 34 35 36 36 38 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT