* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL942025 09/24/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 28 29 33 37 42 47 53 58 64 67 65 63 61 62 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 28 29 33 37 41 46 52 57 63 65 64 61 60 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 31 35 39 41 43 45 47 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 27 27 25 26 18 17 10 13 8 13 10 4 18 25 30 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 0 1 -1 1 -1 -1 0 1 3 6 0 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 283 284 276 262 262 280 250 263 249 218 213 155 196 74 67 74 49 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.8 30.0 29.8 29.9 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.1 30.1 29.8 29.4 29.1 29.4 29.0 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 166 169 165 166 164 167 169 168 168 164 158 154 159 153 158 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 62 63 64 65 67 64 63 63 63 66 67 67 69 66 54 45 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 11 13 14 16 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -10 -1 14 19 8 17 23 32 39 55 64 61 17 21 29 80 200 MB DIV -1 -10 7 1 -1 15 8 17 11 40 44 65 57 9 -6 -42 3 700-850 TADV -7 -3 -2 -7 -8 -2 -5 2 -1 3 3 8 8 3 5 -5 26 LAND (KM) 65 9 39 77 95 46 8 42 30 49 20 57 201 438 681 967 1196 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.2 19.4 19.8 19.9 20.1 20.2 20.5 20.8 21.7 23.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.0 65.1 66.1 67.0 67.9 69.5 70.7 72.0 72.8 73.5 73.8 73.5 72.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 9 9 6 6 5 4 2 3 7 10 11 11 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 68 70 71 71 70 68 69 73 75 71 70 68 63 47 41 27 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 9. 17. 22. 27. 30. 34. 38. 40. 41. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -11. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 6. 5. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 17. 22. 28. 33. 39. 42. 40. 38. 36. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.0 64.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942025 INVEST 09/24/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.33 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 70.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.45 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.81 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.13 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.3 30.0 to 151.8 0.83 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 12.8% 8.7% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 2.1% 1.2% 0.9% 0.2% 1.6% 2.0% 6.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.4% 5.0% 3.3% 2.6% 0.1% 0.6% 3.5% 2.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942025 INVEST 09/24/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942025 INVEST 09/24/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 28 29 33 37 41 46 52 57 63 65 64 61 60 61 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 28 32 36 40 45 51 56 62 64 63 60 59 60 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 27 31 35 40 46 51 57 59 58 55 54 55 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 24 28 33 39 44 50 52 51 48 47 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT