* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL942025 09/24/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 31 35 40 43 49 52 61 67 70 69 68 67 69 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 25 28 28 29 28 33 36 45 51 54 53 52 51 53 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 23 24 24 25 26 30 32 36 41 46 48 51 55 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 24 25 23 22 26 13 19 12 10 10 5 11 1 11 20 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 -3 3 -2 3 -2 2 1 7 6 2 4 3 SHEAR DIR 289 284 289 285 264 277 254 268 267 271 223 213 175 66 64 50 42 SST (C) 30.0 29.7 29.7 29.8 30.1 29.8 30.0 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.1 29.9 29.6 29.2 29.4 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 170 164 164 166 171 164 168 166 169 169 168 166 161 156 159 152 155 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -52.5 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 60 64 65 66 67 67 66 65 66 66 70 67 71 69 67 55 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 11 11 15 16 17 16 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 3 4 8 23 26 27 24 34 32 62 65 97 92 82 49 96 200 MB DIV 51 16 0 4 -12 3 26 -3 25 27 65 54 64 79 60 -14 -11 700-850 TADV -10 -12 -10 -1 -6 -5 -4 1 -3 3 -1 5 7 12 21 -1 25 LAND (KM) 27 48 45 -16 5 -17 -19 -38 20 30 38 37 154 366 644 922 1232 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.5 17.7 18.1 18.4 18.8 19.2 19.5 19.9 20.2 20.6 21.4 22.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.1 64.2 65.4 66.4 67.3 68.8 69.9 71.1 72.0 73.0 73.5 73.8 72.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 10 8 7 5 5 5 4 3 6 9 12 12 15 19 HEAT CONTENT 66 70 73 75 73 68 69 73 76 75 70 69 65 52 39 30 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 10. 17. 23. 27. 31. 35. 39. 42. 42. 43. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 5. 5. 10. 11. 11. 8. 7. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 24. 27. 36. 42. 45. 44. 43. 42. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.3 63.1 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942025 INVEST 09/24/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.41 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 71.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.46 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.81 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.19 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.86 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 12.4% 8.3% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 3.2% 1.5% 1.1% 0.4% 1.8% 3.7% 13.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 5.3% 3.3% 2.5% 0.1% 0.6% 4.1% 4.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.5% 2.6% 1.6% 1.2% 0.0% 0.3% 2.0% 2.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942025 INVEST 09/24/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942025 INVEST 09/24/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 25 28 28 29 28 33 36 45 51 54 53 52 51 53 18HR AGO 25 24 25 23 26 26 27 26 31 34 43 49 52 51 50 49 51 12HR AGO 25 22 21 19 22 22 23 22 27 30 39 45 48 47 46 45 47 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 18 19 18 23 26 35 41 44 43 42 41 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT