* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL942025 09/23/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 28 29 34 38 41 45 49 54 60 64 65 64 64 66 V (KT) LAND 25 28 29 30 32 37 41 38 32 29 34 40 44 45 44 44 46 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 28 29 29 30 30 27 27 27 31 35 40 45 50 55 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 17 21 22 21 23 15 14 13 11 5 3 10 10 14 20 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 4 4 2 -2 0 2 -2 -2 0 -1 0 -1 1 2 4 SHEAR DIR 326 298 286 292 290 267 280 266 294 278 287 169 113 113 77 46 64 SST (C) 29.8 30.1 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.1 29.9 29.9 30.0 29.6 29.4 29.5 29.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 166 172 166 166 167 166 165 167 169 165 165 168 161 158 161 156 153 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 59 61 65 67 68 70 69 69 71 70 70 72 72 67 60 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 4 5 5 5 7 6 7 8 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 2 9 10 21 30 26 35 39 57 68 85 79 63 49 33 12 200 MB DIV 36 41 14 -9 6 -11 19 8 7 15 18 58 73 59 43 0 -19 700-850 TADV -6 -10 -11 -11 -3 -5 -1 0 4 0 6 2 4 7 15 11 8 LAND (KM) -1 78 104 114 86 76 26 -2 -63 -38 43 88 152 340 579 751 842 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 16.8 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.2 21.0 22.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.2 63.3 64.5 65.7 66.7 68.2 69.3 69.9 70.7 71.2 71.8 72.2 72.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 11 9 7 4 4 4 4 4 5 8 9 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 65 68 72 75 78 72 69 70 73 74 71 68 65 58 50 41 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 10. 18. 24. 29. 32. 36. 40. 43. 43. 44. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -0. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. 13. 16. 20. 24. 29. 35. 39. 40. 39. 39. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.8 62.2 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942025 INVEST 09/23/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.40 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 71.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.46 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.81 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.5 30.0 to 151.8 0.88 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 15.5% 10.4% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 4.4% 2.2% 1.4% 0.5% 2.8% 2.6% 13.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.0% 7.2% 4.4% 3.1% 0.2% 1.0% 4.2% 4.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942025 INVEST 09/23/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942025 INVEST 09/23/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 29 30 32 37 41 38 32 29 34 40 44 45 44 44 46 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 33 37 34 28 25 30 36 40 41 40 40 42 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 29 33 30 24 21 26 32 36 37 36 36 38 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 26 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT