* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL942025 09/23/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 32 36 42 44 50 55 62 67 69 66 64 64 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 27 32 36 42 44 50 55 62 67 69 45 35 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 29 32 36 40 44 34 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 20 16 22 25 19 25 15 16 8 10 8 8 16 16 21 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 4 4 1 -4 1 -1 0 -4 -2 -1 0 2 4 2 SHEAR DIR 325 317 288 278 287 273 274 268 281 283 266 170 190 170 186 188 215 SST (C) 29.6 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 164 169 165 165 166 165 164 163 163 162 167 169 170 169 169 167 167 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 58 62 62 65 66 68 68 66 67 67 67 67 67 69 63 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 2 3 3 3 5 6 7 6 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -10 -1 5 7 33 29 46 51 63 49 48 19 7 -20 -21 -37 200 MB DIV 1 32 48 16 -6 0 0 4 -15 12 16 22 27 26 22 15 11 700-850 TADV -9 -5 -12 -15 -13 -1 -4 -2 2 1 3 0 0 0 -2 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 22 58 37 79 73 93 93 39 104 74 30 5 101 10 -39 -42 -44 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.3 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.3 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.3 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.0 63.4 64.6 65.8 67.0 68.9 70.3 71.3 72.3 72.9 73.7 74.4 75.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 11 11 11 8 6 4 4 3 5 5 6 5 4 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 64 67 71 75 78 71 69 72 77 81 82 81 80 82 83 82 84 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 10. 18. 24. 29. 34. 38. 42. 45. 46. 48. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -9. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 7. 12. 17. 19. 25. 30. 37. 42. 44. 41. 39. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.3 62.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942025 INVEST 09/23/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.39 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 71.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.46 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.28 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 123.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.80 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.1 30.0 to 151.8 0.88 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 13.1% 8.7% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.5% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 2.2% 3.1% 15.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.3% 5.5% 3.4% 2.4% 0.1% 0.7% 4.0% 5.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942025 INVEST 09/23/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942025 INVEST 09/23/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 27 32 36 42 44 50 55 62 67 69 45 35 31 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 26 31 35 41 43 49 54 61 66 68 44 34 30 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 27 31 37 39 45 50 57 62 64 40 30 26 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 20 24 30 32 38 43 50 55 57 33 23 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT