* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL942025 09/23/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 29 36 42 46 52 58 65 71 74 71 71 69 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 29 36 42 46 52 58 65 71 74 71 69 67 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 28 31 34 38 43 48 50 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 24 19 15 22 22 21 19 16 11 9 2 8 10 15 15 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 2 5 2 -2 -1 0 0 -2 0 -2 -1 2 1 4 SHEAR DIR 321 321 317 288 278 283 260 281 269 301 273 220 185 181 187 186 212 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.2 30.5 30.6 30.8 30.9 POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 167 165 166 165 166 165 165 165 165 165 170 170 169 169 168 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 58 58 61 63 65 67 68 67 66 67 67 67 68 68 69 63 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 2 2 3 3 4 6 6 6 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -22 -10 3 6 14 37 34 54 56 62 57 39 15 4 -11 -29 200 MB DIV 6 1 33 43 19 1 0 10 7 8 7 30 19 24 15 31 0 700-850 TADV -9 -8 -5 -12 -15 -4 -3 -4 -1 5 1 1 0 0 -1 0 -3 LAND (KM) 103 21 89 45 82 118 116 74 126 132 95 87 77 72 29 34 40 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.3 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.0 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.5 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.7 62.4 63.7 65.0 66.2 68.4 70.0 71.2 72.2 73.1 73.7 74.5 75.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 14 12 12 11 9 7 5 5 4 3 5 6 6 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 65 64 68 73 76 73 69 70 75 79 80 79 81 85 87 89 88 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 764 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 35.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 11. 18. 24. 30. 34. 39. 43. 46. 47. 49. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -5. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 17. 21. 27. 33. 40. 46. 49. 46. 46. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.2 60.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942025 INVEST 09/23/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.44 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 69.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.45 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.03 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.03 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.79 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.23 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.3 30.0 to 151.8 0.89 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.6% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 3.2% 1.4% 1.7% 0.8% 4.2% 11.5% 30.6% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 1.6% Consensus: 0.9% 4.2% 2.4% 0.6% 0.3% 1.4% 6.4% 10.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942025 INVEST 09/23/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942025 INVEST 09/23/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 27 29 36 42 46 52 58 65 71 74 71 69 67 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 28 35 41 45 51 57 64 70 73 70 68 66 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 25 32 38 42 48 54 61 67 70 67 65 63 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 25 31 35 41 47 54 60 63 60 58 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT