* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HUMBERTO AL082025 09/28/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 135 134 132 130 126 115 109 99 95 88 75 62 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 135 134 132 130 126 115 109 99 95 88 75 62 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 135 131 128 125 124 120 110 102 94 84 72 59 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 7 12 15 19 23 13 20 23 40 61 82 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -3 -5 -6 -5 0 5 1 8 12 6 27 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 321 327 344 337 334 345 337 295 267 242 258 240 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.0 28.5 28.5 27.4 27.0 25.8 24.3 15.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 157 159 160 152 144 145 132 129 119 109 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -51.7 -51.0 -50.6 -49.0 -47.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.5 1.2 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 5 3 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 48 49 53 58 67 70 74 67 55 54 50 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 26 28 29 31 34 33 36 40 38 34 39 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -18 -29 -28 -24 -18 43 99 111 112 184 194 290 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 24 0 3 -11 6 15 75 85 113 69 39 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 3 6 0 1 14 6 24 14 -44 -38 23 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 572 625 694 775 823 943 888 759 827 835 928 744 1194 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.4 25.0 25.7 26.3 28.3 30.2 32.1 34.7 36.5 38.2 41.9 47.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.8 63.7 64.6 65.5 66.4 67.7 68.7 68.7 66.7 62.1 55.2 46.5 36.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 11 10 12 17 25 33 42 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 52 47 43 36 33 27 21 14 13 10 5 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -7. -17. -31. -44. -58. -70. -78. -84. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -3. -5. -9. -16. -16. -14. -11. -9. -7. -6. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 2. 6. 11. 7. 1. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -9. -20. -26. -36. -40. -47. -60. -73. -68. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 23.7 62.8 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/28/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.27 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.03 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 959.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.16 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 7.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 2.0% 1.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.5% 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/28/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/28/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 48 45( 71) 40( 83) 31( 88) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 55 63( 83) 41( 90) 23( 92) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 135 134 132 130 126 115 109 99 95 88 75 62 67 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 135 134 132 130 126 115 109 99 95 88 75 62 67 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 135 132 131 129 125 114 108 98 94 87 74 61 66 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 135 129 126 125 121 110 104 94 90 83 70 57 62 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 135 126 120 117 116 105 99 89 85 78 65 52 57 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 135 134 125 119 116 109 103 93 89 82 69 56 61 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 135 134 132 123 117 113 107 97 93 86 73 60 65 DIS DIS DIS DIS