* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HUMBERTO AL082025 09/28/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 140 141 140 137 134 123 110 103 95 90 80 74 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 140 141 140 137 134 123 110 103 95 90 80 74 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 140 138 135 131 128 122 112 103 96 90 80 69 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 6 7 12 15 23 22 21 23 31 49 68 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 -2 -6 -4 -1 0 1 6 9 6 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 305 352 339 334 333 335 350 324 289 252 243 243 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.3 28.7 28.7 28.2 26.8 26.5 25.7 21.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 155 157 159 157 147 147 141 126 125 119 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -51.4 -51.6 -50.9 -49.8 -48.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 3 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 48 49 52 54 62 69 71 75 61 51 51 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 27 27 30 30 30 33 33 37 37 39 38 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -10 -22 -33 -31 -35 -10 43 109 95 170 242 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 7 20 13 -9 3 35 41 90 102 79 86 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -2 2 5 3 5 10 13 31 -11 -65 -32 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 554 567 599 672 755 891 1001 832 768 849 874 698 904 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.6 24.1 24.8 25.5 27.1 29.1 31.1 33.2 35.2 37.3 40.5 44.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.6 62.6 63.6 64.5 65.3 66.7 68.0 68.6 67.9 64.8 59.2 51.3 41.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 10 10 11 11 10 13 20 30 38 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 50 52 49 44 38 29 26 17 13 12 6 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -3. -8. -18. -32. -46. -60. -72. -80. -88. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -3. -6. -13. -16. -14. -11. -8. -5. -4. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 4. 9. 9. 10. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -3. -6. -17. -30. -37. -45. -50. -60. -66. -71. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 23.1 61.6 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/28/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1011.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.17 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 1.8 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 2.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.1% 2.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/28/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/28/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 54 54( 79) 48( 89) 35( 93) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 74 69( 92) 77( 98) 26( 99) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 140 141 140 137 134 123 110 103 95 90 80 74 69 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 140 139 138 135 132 121 108 101 93 88 78 72 67 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 140 137 136 133 130 119 106 99 91 86 76 70 65 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 140 134 131 130 127 116 103 96 88 83 73 67 62 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 140 131 125 122 121 110 97 90 82 77 67 61 56 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 140 141 132 126 123 116 103 96 88 83 73 67 62 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 140 141 140 131 125 121 108 101 93 88 78 72 67 DIS DIS DIS DIS