* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HUMBERTO AL082025 09/27/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 135 136 137 134 130 124 114 104 98 90 88 85 84 84 99 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 135 136 137 134 130 124 114 104 98 90 88 85 84 84 99 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 135 134 131 128 126 124 115 104 96 90 84 77 68 56 48 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 4 5 9 14 18 21 19 19 23 34 50 75 96 73 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 0 -5 -5 -2 1 0 2 11 12 13 19 10 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 321 343 334 339 339 335 349 338 308 281 243 247 236 229 211 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.1 28.6 28.6 27.9 27.1 25.5 24.0 16.1 11.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 157 156 157 160 154 146 146 137 130 117 107 78 73 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 -51.8 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -51.6 -50.7 -49.2 -48.2 -46.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.4 2.1 4.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 47 48 48 51 58 67 70 72 68 58 54 51 46 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 27 25 26 30 30 30 32 32 37 40 42 42 49 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -17 -16 -29 -39 -32 -28 -15 28 54 113 216 242 293 304 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 -9 0 16 3 -7 19 8 43 68 84 103 103 67 72 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -9 -4 0 7 3 14 14 16 24 -19 -35 173 77 -11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 545 555 564 601 661 824 919 940 798 867 856 855 741 1135 1221 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.1 23.5 24.1 24.7 26.2 27.9 30.0 32.4 34.5 36.3 39.0 42.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.7 61.6 62.4 63.5 64.5 66.1 67.5 68.2 68.0 66.1 62.1 55.1 45.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 10 10 11 12 16 25 36 39 36 35 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 48 50 52 49 45 34 29 22 14 14 10 5 3 3 3 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -0. -1. -2. -6. -16. -28. -40. -53. -64. -72. -80. -87. -89. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -14. -12. -9. -5. -2. -1. 1. 7. 16. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. -0. -0. 3. 3. 3. 5. 5. 12. 14. 16. 15. 23. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. -1. -5. -11. -21. -31. -37. -45. -46. -50. -51. -51. -36. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 22.7 60.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/27/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.03 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 993.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.16 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 6.4 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 3.0% 2.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.5% 3.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 2.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 12.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 7.2% 2.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/27/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/27/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 48 49( 73) 43( 85) 36( 90) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 60 69( 88) 70( 96) 35( 98) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 135 136 137 134 130 124 114 104 98 90 88 85 84 84 99 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 135 134 135 132 128 122 112 102 96 88 86 83 82 82 97 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 135 132 131 128 124 118 108 98 92 84 82 79 78 78 93 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 135 129 126 125 121 115 105 95 89 81 79 76 75 75 90 DIS DIS NOW 135 126 120 117 116 110 100 90 84 76 74 71 70 70 85 DIS DIS IN 6HR 135 136 127 121 118 114 104 94 88 80 78 75 74 74 89 DIS DIS IN 12HR 135 136 137 128 122 118 108 98 92 84 82 79 78 78 93 DIS DIS