* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HUMBERTO AL082025 09/27/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 123 121 121 118 112 106 100 94 91 88 88 84 76 48 42 42 V (KT) LAND 125 123 121 121 118 112 106 100 94 91 88 88 84 76 48 42 42 V (KT) LGEM 125 124 121 119 117 112 111 105 94 87 83 79 69 50 31 23 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 7 7 11 20 24 23 22 17 20 47 63 86 60 19 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 2 0 -5 -5 0 1 2 7 12 4 24 7 -8 24 18 SHEAR DIR 300 325 329 334 340 343 347 359 335 303 270 264 249 236 204 216 241 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.0 28.7 28.7 27.7 26.8 26.0 18.9 14.0 11.6 12.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 155 157 155 157 158 152 147 148 136 128 121 84 75 71 71 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.3 -51.5 -50.5 -49.0 -48.1 -47.5 -48.3 -48.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.8 1.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 48 49 48 50 57 66 71 71 70 60 48 49 41 41 57 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 25 27 27 27 29 30 30 31 33 36 39 36 13 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -23 -21 -22 -31 -37 -34 -3 31 107 115 170 212 175 134 136 16 200 MB DIV -1 17 -16 0 19 -5 -2 9 10 87 91 66 46 32 1 8 -5 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -9 -5 0 6 6 18 18 21 2 -15 6 -11 -106 71 68 LAND (KM) 576 559 552 563 581 721 850 928 919 843 905 892 830 783 1241 1094 564 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.8 23.0 23.5 23.9 25.2 26.7 28.2 30.3 32.5 34.5 36.7 39.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.7 60.5 61.3 62.3 63.3 65.2 66.7 67.8 68.2 67.4 65.1 60.0 52.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 10 11 12 18 29 35 39 36 29 25 HEAT CONTENT 44 46 49 52 51 41 32 29 21 14 12 7 4 3 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 1. 1. -0. -4. -12. -22. -32. -42. -50. -57. -64. -70. -74. -75. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -4. -5. -7. -11. -14. -14. -12. -7. -3. -2. -1. 3. 9. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 0. -0. 2. 3. 2. 3. 4. 9. 11. 6. -24. -34. -37. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -7. -13. -19. -25. -31. -34. -37. -37. -41. -49. -77. -83. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 22.5 59.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/27/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 890.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.15 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 3.8% 2.6% 1.2% 0.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 15.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 8.0% 2.3% 2.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/27/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/27/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 34( 59) 32( 72) 30( 81) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 14 27( 37) 24( 52) 30( 67) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 123 121 121 118 112 106 100 94 91 88 88 84 76 48 42 42 18HR AGO 125 124 122 122 119 113 107 101 95 92 89 89 85 77 49 43 43 12HR AGO 125 122 121 121 118 112 106 100 94 91 88 88 84 76 48 42 42 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 112 106 100 94 88 85 82 82 78 70 42 36 36 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 100 94 88 82 79 76 76 72 64 36 30 30 IN 6HR 125 123 114 108 105 100 94 88 82 79 76 76 72 64 36 30 30 IN 12HR 125 123 121 112 106 102 96 90 84 81 78 78 74 66 38 32 32