* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HUMBERTO AL082025 09/27/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 129 127 124 123 117 112 103 95 93 90 90 89 89 85 85 87 V (KT) LAND 125 129 127 124 123 117 112 103 95 93 90 90 89 89 85 85 87 V (KT) LGEM 125 130 130 127 123 119 115 108 97 89 86 84 78 65 49 39 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 13 7 7 15 25 26 21 20 20 34 66 96 98 61 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -2 1 0 -3 -3 2 0 0 9 9 14 22 -4 -6 7 SHEAR DIR 274 299 328 349 342 342 348 1 349 311 293 261 263 245 220 210 195 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.2 28.8 28.9 28.3 26.7 26.5 25.7 19.4 14.2 11.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 154 155 156 157 161 155 149 150 142 124 124 118 85 75 73 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.2 -51.2 -50.5 -49.1 -47.4 -47.3 -48.3 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 7 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 49 50 51 51 55 63 70 71 72 69 56 49 43 45 49 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 23 24 26 26 29 29 28 31 34 38 40 44 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -22 -24 -18 -24 -42 -37 -16 8 69 133 154 220 237 123 51 39 200 MB DIV 13 7 8 -3 -1 -1 11 12 12 59 86 131 54 -4 11 -7 13 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -6 -8 -4 3 6 11 12 23 24 10 8 5 -231 -26 154 LAND (KM) 585 561 535 532 533 605 768 851 976 854 811 873 907 733 778 1285 1113 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.4 22.5 22.9 23.2 24.2 25.6 27.1 29.0 31.1 33.2 35.2 37.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.9 59.7 60.5 61.5 62.4 64.2 66.0 67.5 68.3 68.3 67.4 64.3 58.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 9 9 10 11 10 10 11 13 20 27 34 37 36 34 HEAT CONTENT 44 45 48 51 53 48 38 32 27 17 14 13 6 3 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. -0. -4. -11. -21. -31. -41. -49. -55. -62. -69. -75. -78. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -6. -9. -12. -13. -11. -7. -3. -1. -1. 1. 6. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 2. 1. 4. 4. 3. 5. 9. 14. 16. 19. 18. 16. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -3. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 2. -1. -2. -8. -13. -22. -30. -32. -35. -35. -36. -36. -40. -40. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 22.2 58.9 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/27/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.96 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 842.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.05 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.16 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.3% 16.3% 13.1% 6.7% 2.8% 4.7% 2.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 5.4% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 5.8% 4.5% 2.2% 0.9% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% DTOPS: 17.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 11.2% 4.4% 3.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/27/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/27/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 41( 63) 35( 76) 32( 84) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 12 18( 28) 21( 43) 32( 61) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 129 127 124 123 117 112 103 95 93 90 90 89 89 85 85 87 18HR AGO 125 124 122 119 118 112 107 98 90 88 85 85 84 84 80 80 82 12HR AGO 125 122 121 118 117 111 106 97 89 87 84 84 83 83 79 79 81 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 114 108 103 94 86 84 81 81 80 80 76 76 78 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 100 95 86 78 76 73 73 72 72 68 68 70 IN 6HR 125 129 120 114 111 107 102 93 85 83 80 80 79 79 75 75 77 IN 12HR 125 129 127 118 112 108 103 94 86 84 81 81 80 80 76 76 78