* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HUMBERTO AL082025 09/27/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 128 129 125 125 121 117 115 108 103 98 96 101 102 94 85 100 V (KT) LAND 120 128 129 125 125 121 117 115 108 103 98 96 101 102 94 85 100 V (KT) LGEM 120 130 131 128 125 121 119 117 110 101 96 93 89 80 60 47 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 8 7 4 8 13 19 15 15 18 21 36 48 76 96 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -1 3 -1 0 1 1 2 8 7 8 22 19 -14 -5 SHEAR DIR 271 268 295 330 344 336 346 344 342 306 268 260 261 242 238 236 244 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.0 26.9 25.9 22.2 17.2 13.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 152 154 155 155 157 159 150 145 143 140 129 120 95 77 71 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -51.3 -51.6 -50.8 -50.0 -50.4 -50.3 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 52 51 51 51 51 59 65 71 70 69 61 51 50 42 33 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 24 22 25 26 27 30 31 32 35 38 43 47 42 38 49 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -16 -21 -21 -19 -35 -32 -28 0 22 106 92 206 236 178 22 -114 200 MB DIV 30 15 0 19 -3 11 -3 2 26 22 77 80 75 80 74 -26 -14 700-850 TADV 0 2 -2 -4 -6 4 5 7 11 11 20 9 14 97 149 -57 30 LAND (KM) 605 587 576 552 538 569 721 836 948 861 744 884 896 791 741 1064 1369 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.3 22.5 22.7 22.9 23.8 25.2 26.6 28.6 30.6 32.5 34.4 36.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.4 59.0 59.7 60.5 61.4 63.4 65.2 66.8 68.1 68.7 68.6 65.9 60.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 10 11 19 28 35 33 27 23 HEAT CONTENT 44 43 44 47 50 52 41 33 28 19 14 13 7 4 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -10. -19. -27. -36. -43. -49. -55. -62. -68. -73. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 12. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 8. 8. 5. 3. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -7. -7. -4. -1. 1. -1. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. 1. 1. 2. 6. 6. 8. 12. 15. 21. 23. 17. 10. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 9. 5. 5. 1. -3. -5. -12. -17. -22. -24. -19. -18. -26. -34. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 22.1 58.4 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/27/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 45.0 -49.5 to 33.0 1.00 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.23 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 789.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.19 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 25.8% 28.9% 25.3% 11.2% 2.8% 8.5% 5.8% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.6% 9.7% 8.5% 3.7% 0.9% 2.8% 1.9% 0.5% DTOPS: 69.0% 34.0% 32.0% 14.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 38.8% 21.8% 20.2% 8.8% 2.4% 1.9% 0.9% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/27/25 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/27/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 44( 62) 38( 77) 34( 85) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 13 32( 41) 40( 65) 27( 74) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 128 129 125 125 121 117 115 108 103 98 96 101 102 94 85 100 18HR AGO 120 119 120 116 116 112 108 106 99 94 89 87 92 93 85 76 91 12HR AGO 120 117 116 112 112 108 104 102 95 90 85 83 88 89 81 72 87 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 110 106 102 100 93 88 83 81 86 87 79 70 85 NOW 120 111 105 102 101 97 93 91 84 79 74 72 77 78 70 61 76 IN 6HR 120 128 119 113 110 107 103 101 94 89 84 82 87 88 80 71 86 IN 12HR 120 128 129 120 114 110 106 104 97 92 87 85 90 91 83 74 89