* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HUMBERTO AL082025 09/26/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 104 109 112 114 117 116 112 104 100 95 95 96 95 95 82 69 V (KT) LAND 95 104 109 112 114 117 116 112 104 100 95 95 96 95 95 82 69 V (KT) LGEM 95 105 111 113 114 115 116 114 108 103 99 98 94 86 75 59 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 9 12 10 10 13 16 13 8 11 25 25 31 34 56 65 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -4 0 1 -1 2 1 0 4 5 7 8 12 4 -5 SHEAR DIR 278 248 282 301 313 324 343 349 350 312 240 243 230 226 219 223 246 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.1 28.6 28.7 28.2 26.8 26.1 25.2 20.7 12.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 152 152 152 154 157 157 161 154 146 147 141 126 121 114 89 74 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 9 8 7 7 4 3 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 48 50 49 50 50 54 61 68 66 64 66 58 54 53 36 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 22 23 23 26 27 28 28 30 32 37 42 44 47 42 31 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -17 -19 -23 -23 -23 -35 -25 -16 -12 18 63 111 216 180 95 8 200 MB DIV 11 16 9 2 -2 13 6 -4 6 4 54 101 113 86 104 59 3 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -2 -5 7 4 7 0 11 16 -11 -27 -30 -103 -16 LAND (KM) 660 641 628 616 598 574 660 800 895 945 769 795 864 873 719 814 1210 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.5 22.7 22.9 23.1 23.6 24.7 26.0 27.7 29.6 31.7 33.6 35.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.8 58.4 59.0 59.7 60.4 62.4 64.3 66.2 67.6 68.5 68.9 67.4 64.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 8 10 10 11 10 10 10 13 22 31 34 35 35 HEAT CONTENT 43 43 42 43 44 52 46 36 30 25 16 15 13 6 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -7. -12. -16. -21. -25. -29. -34. -39. -44. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 9. 11. 18. 23. 24. 27. 19. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 11. 9. 5. 2. -1. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 14. 17. 19. 22. 21. 17. 9. 5. 0. -0. 1. -0. 0. -13. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 22.3 57.8 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/26/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.96 15.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.78 6.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.28 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 634.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.27 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.17 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.1 30.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.76 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 40% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 39.8% 38.4% 34.2% 25.5% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 19.0% 29.0% 26.6% 13.0% 3.5% 9.2% 5.4% 2.4% Bayesian: 17.0% 5.3% 7.0% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 25.2% 24.2% 22.6% 13.4% 5.7% 3.1% 1.8% 0.8% DTOPS: 71.0% 84.0% 77.0% 54.0% 46.0% 54.0% 19.0% 0.0% SDCON: 48.1% 54.1% 49.8% 33.7% 25.8% 28.5% 10.4% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/26/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/26/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 28( 40) 30( 58) 32( 72) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 7 27( 32) 38( 58) 44( 76) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 104 109 112 114 117 116 112 104 100 95 95 96 95 95 82 69 18HR AGO 95 94 99 102 104 107 106 102 94 90 85 85 86 85 85 72 59 12HR AGO 95 92 91 94 96 99 98 94 86 82 77 77 78 77 77 64 51 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 87 90 89 85 77 73 68 68 69 68 68 55 42 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 79 78 74 66 62 57 57 58 57 57 44 31 IN 6HR 95 104 95 89 86 87 86 82 74 70 65 65 66 65 65 52 39 IN 12HR 95 104 109 100 94 90 89 85 77 73 68 68 69 68 68 55 42