* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HUMBERTO AL082025 09/26/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 83 89 95 100 107 107 107 102 96 94 91 90 91 97 89 57 V (KT) LAND 75 83 89 95 100 107 107 107 102 96 94 91 90 91 97 89 57 V (KT) LGEM 75 83 89 94 98 104 108 110 109 103 99 97 93 88 84 65 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 7 7 9 11 8 12 16 14 7 9 20 31 33 65 87 92 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 0 -3 2 0 0 2 -1 3 9 2 14 17 26 25 SHEAR DIR 277 268 244 274 294 317 347 345 349 340 271 230 240 242 252 224 206 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.6 28.1 27.2 27.0 26.2 24.9 18.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 150 151 152 156 157 157 156 149 145 139 128 128 120 109 80 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -51.7 -50.2 -48.1 -47.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.5 1.4 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 52 51 51 50 52 54 60 64 67 63 65 66 53 51 53 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 20 21 21 25 24 27 27 28 31 35 39 44 53 55 34 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -23 -18 -25 -30 -19 -37 -28 -22 -12 -21 22 73 165 266 218 87 200 MB DIV -3 8 13 0 3 13 10 -3 13 19 22 103 96 74 55 25 54 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 -7 -1 4 0 4 3 17 11 -4 57 14 -95 LAND (KM) 694 671 654 633 616 578 600 741 869 962 817 731 814 812 856 674 506 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.5 22.7 22.8 22.9 23.3 24.1 25.4 27.0 28.9 30.9 32.9 34.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.3 57.9 58.5 59.1 59.7 61.5 63.5 65.0 67.0 68.4 69.0 68.5 66.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 6 7 9 10 10 12 10 10 11 14 20 23 25 25 HEAT CONTENT 43 43 42 42 43 49 50 40 32 28 19 14 15 13 6 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 47.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 9. 11. 15. 19. 23. 28. 38. 37. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 17. 13. 8. 3. -2. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 20. 25. 32. 32. 32. 27. 21. 19. 16. 15. 16. 22. 14. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 22.3 57.3 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/26/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 13.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.75 6.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.27 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 3.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 484.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.43 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.15 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.8 30.0 to 151.8 0.23 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 31.4% 41.9% 34.4% 28.7% 20.4% 26.7% 20.3% 0.0% Logistic: 24.6% 37.7% 38.5% 26.5% 8.7% 16.3% 6.7% 4.6% Bayesian: 26.0% 17.1% 26.6% 14.0% 6.6% 5.0% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 27.4% 32.2% 33.2% 23.1% 11.9% 16.0% 9.1% 1.5% DTOPS: 48.0% 93.0% 84.0% 60.0% 31.0% 93.0% 87.0% 12.0% SDCON: 37.7% 62.6% 58.6% 41.5% 21.4% 54.5% 48.0% 6.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/26/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/26/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 11( 15) 22( 34) 27( 52) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 3( 3) 6( 9) 21( 28) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 83 89 95 100 107 107 107 102 96 94 91 90 91 97 89 57 18HR AGO 75 74 80 86 91 98 98 98 93 87 85 82 81 82 88 80 48 12HR AGO 75 72 71 77 82 89 89 89 84 78 76 73 72 73 79 71 39 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 70 77 77 77 72 66 64 61 60 61 67 59 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 75 83 74 68 65 69 69 69 64 58 56 53 52 53 59 51 19 IN 12HR 75 83 89 80 74 70 70 70 65 59 57 54 53 54 60 52 20