* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HUMBERTO AL082025 09/26/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 63 68 73 76 83 84 83 82 82 81 81 84 86 88 66 V (KT) LAND 55 58 63 68 73 76 83 84 83 82 82 81 81 84 86 88 66 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 61 64 67 73 80 86 87 87 86 86 86 84 82 71 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 10 9 12 14 15 15 14 11 7 12 31 34 49 82 83 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 -1 -1 -2 1 0 1 0 2 5 7 7 11 23 22 SHEAR DIR 275 286 285 276 282 326 341 346 348 356 301 228 252 255 256 247 220 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.0 28.6 28.1 27.9 27.1 27.0 25.8 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 149 151 152 154 157 159 161 153 146 137 136 128 128 115 109 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -51.5 -51.6 -50.8 -51.2 -51.4 -50.9 -48.7 -47.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.7 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 5 3 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 52 50 53 52 54 55 56 60 63 67 62 62 63 54 53 50 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 19 20 22 21 25 26 26 27 29 31 35 40 46 55 45 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -31 -28 -22 -28 -35 -31 -40 -19 0 -12 3 60 118 229 282 149 200 MB DIV -10 -15 9 12 0 1 0 12 6 39 5 41 86 70 66 23 15 700-850 TADV 0 -3 0 0 0 -3 -6 7 0 1 7 11 26 3 22 25 -42 LAND (KM) 693 676 662 643 628 565 578 661 792 880 850 694 683 841 845 829 725 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.3 22.4 22.6 22.7 22.9 23.7 24.7 26.0 27.8 29.9 31.8 33.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.1 57.5 57.9 58.5 59.0 60.7 62.6 64.6 66.4 68.0 69.5 69.8 68.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 5 6 9 10 10 11 12 11 8 12 19 20 17 15 HEAT CONTENT 43 43 43 42 42 47 52 45 36 32 24 17 14 14 8 6 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -7. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. 15. 18. 24. 30. 38. 25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 8. 5. 2. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 18. 21. 28. 29. 28. 27. 27. 26. 26. 29. 31. 33. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 22.1 57.1 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/26/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.62 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.27 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.92 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 336.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.58 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.13 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.38 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 28.5% 18.8% 17.4% 11.3% 18.2% 14.4% 18.9% Logistic: 12.3% 16.9% 15.8% 14.0% 4.8% 12.0% 6.3% 4.9% Bayesian: 3.4% 3.7% 5.2% 1.7% 0.8% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 8.1% 16.3% 13.3% 11.0% 5.7% 10.6% 6.9% 7.9% DTOPS: 6.0% 39.0% 13.0% 5.0% 4.0% 25.0% 39.0% 17.0% SDCON: 7.0% 27.6% 13.1% 8.0% 4.8% 17.8% 22.9% 12.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/26/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/26/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 5( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 63 68 73 76 83 84 83 82 82 81 81 84 86 88 66 18HR AGO 55 54 59 64 69 72 79 80 79 78 78 77 77 80 82 84 62 12HR AGO 55 52 51 56 61 64 71 72 71 70 70 69 69 72 74 76 54 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 50 53 60 61 60 59 59 58 58 61 63 65 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT