* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HUMBERTO AL082025 09/26/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 65 69 74 78 83 83 79 79 77 73 75 78 78 81 65 V (KT) LAND 55 61 65 69 74 78 83 83 79 79 77 73 75 78 78 81 65 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 65 68 71 77 82 86 86 87 83 81 81 82 80 72 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 17 9 12 14 16 22 20 20 12 13 24 33 40 64 90 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 1 4 0 -3 1 -3 0 0 -3 7 7 2 12 21 4 SHEAR DIR 265 275 280 270 267 302 339 347 352 1 358 277 246 261 227 226 221 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.3 28.0 27.6 26.8 25.4 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 147 149 149 153 156 157 159 156 150 140 137 135 127 113 106 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.4 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -52.0 -51.8 -50.3 -48.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.1 2.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 3 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 54 52 51 53 53 54 55 57 63 65 66 62 61 63 53 50 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 18 19 20 23 24 23 26 27 27 31 36 40 50 43 850 MB ENV VOR -44 -43 -37 -33 -27 -38 -27 -42 -18 6 25 -9 34 61 182 214 222 200 MB DIV 32 -6 -18 -11 0 -17 9 25 20 14 36 0 130 87 60 71 51 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 0 0 -5 -9 -1 0 4 1 5 20 21 -65 -65 36 LAND (KM) 700 690 682 668 656 601 565 588 725 863 953 779 678 849 811 812 646 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.3 22.4 22.5 22.6 22.8 23.2 24.0 25.2 27.0 29.0 30.8 32.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.0 57.3 57.6 58.0 58.3 59.8 61.6 63.6 65.5 67.2 68.8 69.6 69.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 5 8 9 10 11 12 11 9 12 21 26 24 22 HEAT CONTENT 43 43 43 43 42 43 50 51 41 32 28 20 15 15 9 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 2. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 6. 10. 11. 10. 15. 20. 24. 33. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 11. 9. 5. 2. -1. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 14. 19. 23. 28. 28. 24. 24. 22. 18. 20. 23. 23. 26. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 22.1 57.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/26/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 7.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.53 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.28 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 332.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.58 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.13 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.5 30.0 to 151.8 0.36 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.8% 24.7% 17.7% 15.6% 8.2% 16.4% 14.6% 18.4% Logistic: 14.0% 15.8% 13.8% 14.7% 4.6% 14.7% 8.0% 6.8% Bayesian: 12.0% 10.1% 8.1% 2.6% 1.0% 2.6% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 12.3% 16.9% 13.2% 11.0% 4.6% 11.2% 7.6% 8.4% DTOPS: 8.0% 18.0% 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 14.0% 44.0% 9.0% SDCON: 10.1% 17.4% 10.1% 8.0% 3.8% 12.6% 25.8% 8.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/26/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/26/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 2( 2) 5( 7) 6( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 61 65 69 74 78 83 83 79 79 77 73 75 78 78 81 65 18HR AGO 55 54 58 62 67 71 76 76 72 72 70 66 68 71 71 74 58 12HR AGO 55 52 51 55 60 64 69 69 65 65 63 59 61 64 64 67 51 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 50 54 59 59 55 55 53 49 51 54 54 57 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT