* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HUMBERTO AL082025 09/25/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 58 61 65 70 73 80 79 80 79 77 80 76 80 79 79 V (KT) LAND 50 55 58 61 65 70 73 80 79 80 79 77 80 76 80 79 79 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 58 61 63 67 72 78 81 82 79 76 76 77 76 73 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 21 22 17 14 14 13 18 25 18 15 7 10 29 41 61 68 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 -6 0 0 4 4 4 4 11 18 SHEAR DIR 270 273 289 288 290 296 317 339 360 6 15 342 240 251 237 236 224 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 28.9 28.5 28.4 27.9 26.9 25.5 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 147 149 149 152 155 157 159 159 151 144 143 138 127 115 112 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -52.9 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.4 -51.3 -50.8 -50.0 -49.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 5 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 54 54 53 52 54 54 52 53 59 63 65 62 62 60 52 48 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 16 17 19 19 24 23 26 27 28 30 30 37 42 49 850 MB ENV VOR -59 -45 -43 -38 -33 -35 -43 -35 -34 -10 -6 -27 -14 18 100 184 183 200 MB DIV 28 34 -16 -28 2 0 15 -4 10 9 35 0 53 85 68 69 139 700-850 TADV 3 1 -1 -2 0 -1 -5 -3 8 2 2 2 4 14 -20 -38 28 LAND (KM) 685 681 679 665 653 624 602 604 685 806 885 850 724 755 789 738 587 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.0 22.2 22.4 22.5 22.8 23.3 24.0 24.9 26.3 28.1 30.0 31.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.9 57.1 57.4 57.8 58.2 59.3 60.8 62.8 64.9 66.8 68.4 69.4 69.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 4 4 6 9 10 11 11 11 9 11 16 22 28 29 HEAT CONTENT 44 44 43 43 43 42 46 50 44 36 33 24 17 15 16 7 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 7. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -3. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 10. 9. 13. 14. 14. 16. 15. 22. 26. 33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 11. 15. 20. 23. 30. 29. 30. 29. 27. 30. 26. 30. 29. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 21.8 56.9 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/25/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 46.9 to 6.8 0.55 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.28 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.21 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 297.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.62 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.15 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.3 30.0 to 151.8 0.40 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.78 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 16.9% 12.1% 9.7% 7.2% 12.8% 13.9% 18.3% Logistic: 7.1% 12.6% 9.3% 11.0% 3.9% 14.8% 8.4% 6.9% Bayesian: 4.1% 2.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 10.6% 7.5% 7.0% 3.7% 9.4% 7.5% 8.4% DTOPS: 6.0% 12.0% 6.0% 4.0% 1.0% 4.0% 5.0% 11.0% SDCON: 6.0% 11.3% 6.7% 5.5% 2.3% 6.7% 6.2% 9.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/25/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/25/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 4( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 55 58 61 65 70 73 80 79 80 79 77 80 76 80 79 79 18HR AGO 50 49 52 55 59 64 67 74 73 74 73 71 74 70 74 73 73 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 53 58 61 68 67 68 67 65 68 64 68 67 67 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 44 49 52 59 58 59 58 56 59 55 59 58 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT