* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HUMBERTO AL082025 09/25/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 45 48 52 59 68 70 73 72 70 71 70 71 72 75 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 45 48 52 59 68 70 73 72 70 71 70 71 72 75 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 43 45 48 52 58 61 63 63 60 59 60 63 66 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 19 19 17 14 13 19 28 24 22 15 13 20 26 56 65 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -4 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -9 0 5 -2 7 6 2 7 -1 SHEAR DIR 288 269 282 296 297 284 308 327 340 353 355 352 280 240 238 225 222 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.0 27.2 26.8 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 147 147 149 149 154 157 159 162 154 150 146 137 129 126 113 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -52.3 -51.0 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 53 56 56 56 56 55 54 55 56 63 67 69 67 65 58 38 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 15 16 18 20 24 23 25 26 25 27 28 32 39 46 850 MB ENV VOR -76 -59 -48 -45 -41 -33 -44 -29 -39 -6 16 35 17 35 92 173 182 200 MB DIV 17 26 31 -16 -20 10 -5 17 11 36 35 44 -4 78 118 57 18 700-850 TADV 5 3 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -6 0 0 7 -2 7 13 -2 -112 -70 LAND (KM) 666 659 655 645 639 633 603 610 650 792 863 930 738 712 803 727 585 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.6 21.8 22.0 22.2 22.7 23.0 23.8 24.6 25.8 27.4 29.4 31.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.7 57.0 57.3 57.6 58.0 58.9 60.1 62.0 64.0 65.9 67.7 68.9 69.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 4 5 5 8 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 16 21 23 HEAT CONTENT 45 45 44 44 44 42 44 49 47 37 33 27 18 14 15 13 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 19. 18. 16. 14. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 9. 8. 12. 12. 10. 11. 11. 16. 22. 30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 19. 28. 30. 33. 32. 30. 31. 30. 31. 32. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.3 56.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/25/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 46.9 to 6.8 0.61 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.29 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.06 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 233.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.69 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.17 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.4 30.0 to 151.8 0.50 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.75 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 11.4% 7.9% 6.4% 4.9% 9.7% 10.1% 17.4% Logistic: 2.5% 5.9% 3.4% 4.1% 1.6% 6.6% 8.4% 8.2% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 5.8% 3.8% 3.5% 2.2% 5.5% 6.2% 8.5% DTOPS: 3.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 28.0% SDCON: 2.5% 5.9% 3.4% 2.2% 1.6% 3.7% 4.1% 18.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/25/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/25/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 43 45 48 52 59 68 70 73 72 70 71 70 71 72 75 18HR AGO 40 39 41 43 46 50 57 66 68 71 70 68 69 68 69 70 73 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 41 45 52 61 63 66 65 63 64 63 64 65 68 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 37 44 53 55 58 57 55 56 55 56 57 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT