* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HUMBERTO AL082025 09/25/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 51 55 63 70 77 77 79 78 74 77 77 75 68 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 51 55 63 70 77 77 79 78 74 77 77 75 68 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 49 51 55 60 65 70 73 74 73 71 72 73 70 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 21 20 16 19 16 12 16 18 28 23 20 21 24 29 36 65 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -8 -5 -2 -2 1 -3 1 -2 -2 1 -2 5 2 4 0 SHEAR DIR 274 286 287 274 283 298 277 310 330 339 342 334 300 282 242 213 223 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.0 27.3 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 148 147 147 149 149 154 157 157 158 155 150 149 138 130 122 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.0 -52.8 -52.3 -52.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.3 1.4 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 3 1 1 700-500 MB RH 57 56 57 60 59 58 57 55 55 56 65 66 72 77 75 62 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 14 15 16 19 22 25 25 27 27 26 31 34 37 38 850 MB ENV VOR -66 -75 -76 -57 -47 -43 -32 -40 -18 -19 20 25 34 64 104 178 204 200 MB DIV 34 18 4 27 38 -20 29 13 21 25 40 51 48 78 191 138 4 700-850 TADV -1 1 3 4 1 0 -2 -4 -7 -2 -11 -9 8 22 25 -57 -28 LAND (KM) 738 695 664 658 655 656 657 648 665 752 898 1018 955 837 871 822 842 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.0 21.5 21.7 21.9 22.4 22.9 23.3 24.3 25.5 26.8 28.4 30.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.4 56.1 56.9 57.1 57.4 58.0 58.8 59.8 61.9 63.7 65.2 66.6 67.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 6 3 4 4 5 8 11 10 10 10 10 11 14 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 46 46 45 45 44 43 41 41 46 41 30 25 22 15 15 13 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 17. 19. 19. 19. 18. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 15. 15. 17. 17. 13. 18. 22. 24. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 15. 23. 30. 37. 37. 39. 38. 34. 37. 37. 35. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.5 55.4 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/25/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.63 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.29 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.10 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 237.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.68 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.25 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.5 30.0 to 151.8 0.52 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 13.9% 9.8% 7.6% 5.7% 10.8% 12.4% 20.2% Logistic: 2.4% 7.3% 3.1% 2.1% 0.7% 5.6% 6.8% 8.3% Bayesian: 3.6% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 7.6% 4.4% 3.3% 2.2% 5.5% 6.4% 9.5% DTOPS: 5.0% 21.0% 13.0% 11.0% 4.0% 6.0% 3.0% 29.0% SDCON: 4.1% 14.3% 8.7% 7.1% 3.1% 5.7% 4.7% 19.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/25/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/25/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 46 49 51 55 63 70 77 77 79 78 74 77 77 75 68 18HR AGO 40 39 42 45 47 51 59 66 73 73 75 74 70 73 73 71 64 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 41 45 53 60 67 67 69 68 64 67 67 65 58 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 36 44 51 58 58 60 59 55 58 58 56 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT