* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * HUMBERTO AL082025 09/24/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 43 46 53 60 70 80 85 90 93 92 90 88 86 80 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 43 46 53 60 70 80 85 90 93 92 90 88 86 80 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 43 48 53 60 68 76 83 88 88 84 82 78 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 16 16 15 13 9 13 4 13 13 18 16 25 35 53 71 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -5 -9 -7 -2 -4 -2 0 0 -2 2 3 4 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 268 273 283 285 278 287 271 293 314 316 312 301 289 262 213 219 216 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.0 28.7 28.6 27.3 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 151 150 148 149 149 153 156 157 158 159 152 147 146 130 124 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.4 -51.2 -51.7 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.4 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 2 1 700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 56 60 61 61 58 58 60 63 69 75 74 75 70 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 14 15 19 23 25 27 30 31 32 35 40 41 850 MB ENV VOR -65 -66 -74 -72 -60 -45 -36 -36 -29 -10 -11 9 37 32 82 128 186 200 MB DIV 36 41 29 8 18 -11 14 24 56 23 44 59 88 65 139 192 83 700-850 TADV 1 -3 0 1 2 0 0 -2 -2 -6 1 -9 -2 11 16 11 -16 LAND (KM) 799 741 694 674 662 654 649 634 615 652 749 892 957 904 800 813 726 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 8 7 5 4 4 6 8 10 10 10 10 11 13 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 45 46 46 45 44 43 42 42 46 47 40 31 29 22 16 15 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 18. 21. 22. 24. 24. 23. 22. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 15. 18. 22. 24. 25. 24. 26. 30. 29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 25. 35. 45. 50. 55. 58. 57. 55. 53. 51. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.8 54.5 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/24/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.74 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.29 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.10 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 219.0 895.4 to -69.3 0.70 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.26 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.59 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 13.8% 9.5% 7.3% 5.7% 11.0% 13.1% 23.1% Logistic: 2.5% 12.7% 5.6% 3.8% 1.7% 9.4% 15.3% 19.7% Bayesian: 2.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% Consensus: 2.5% 9.1% 5.1% 3.7% 2.5% 6.8% 9.6% 14.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% SDCON: 1.7% 5.0% 3.0% 1.8% 1.2% 3.4% 4.8% 10.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/24/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082025 HUMBERTO 09/24/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 43 46 53 60 70 80 85 90 93 92 90 88 86 80 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 43 50 57 67 77 82 87 90 89 87 85 83 77 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 44 51 61 71 76 81 84 83 81 79 77 71 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 35 42 52 62 67 72 75 74 72 70 68 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT