* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * FERNAND AL062025 08/25/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 49 49 47 42 37 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 48 49 49 47 42 37 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 48 50 50 49 45 41 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 12 12 12 14 7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 4 4 2 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 345 354 16 24 23 53 102 200 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.2 28.2 27.6 26.8 26.1 23.4 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 139 140 133 124 117 98 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -54.0 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.5 -0.6 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 4 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 46 49 52 54 57 52 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 8 7 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -92 -96 -94 -77 -66 -53 -70 -111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -29 -37 -26 6 24 35 57 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 16 19 15 17 26 15 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1373 1310 1251 1176 1086 895 641 533 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.1 32.9 33.7 34.9 36.0 38.6 41.0 44.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.6 59.1 58.5 57.7 56.9 54.7 51.4 47.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 12 13 14 17 20 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 11 9 9 8 7 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 10 CX,CY: 4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 4. 2. -3. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 32.1 59.6 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062025 FERNAND 08/25/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.62 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 315.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.60 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.08 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.2 30.0 to 151.8 0.34 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 15.3% 11.0% 8.9% 6.7% 11.6% 12.7% 0.0% Logistic: 5.9% 14.0% 11.4% 9.4% 2.9% 17.4% 5.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 9.9% 7.5% 6.2% 3.2% 9.7% 5.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.6% 5.4% 4.2% 3.6% 1.6% 4.8% 2.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062025 FERNAND 08/25/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062025 FERNAND 08/25/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 49 49 47 42 37 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 45 43 38 33 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 39 34 29 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 28 23 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT