* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * FERNAND AL062025 08/24/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 46 45 43 39 40 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 46 45 43 39 40 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 45 45 43 40 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 10 11 14 11 11 5 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 3 4 5 1 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 311 330 340 359 22 24 91 197 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.1 26.3 23.3 14.3 19.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 145 140 135 126 118 96 71 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -54.3 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 42 44 46 50 55 53 50 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 6 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -74 -87 -92 -81 -76 -49 -67 -93 -132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 -18 -30 -33 -2 30 67 15 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 9 19 24 21 22 21 24 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1445 1350 1263 1183 1103 945 680 509 732 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.3 32.4 33.5 34.6 35.7 37.8 40.5 43.1 45.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.0 59.3 58.7 58.0 57.4 55.7 53.1 49.0 43.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 15 18 22 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 12 10 9 8 8 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 12 CX,CY: 4/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. -1. -0. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 31.3 60.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062025 FERNAND 08/24/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 46.9 to 6.8 0.67 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.53 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 296.2 895.4 to -69.3 0.62 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.05 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.4 30.0 to 151.8 0.41 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.65 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 15.3% 10.9% 8.5% 6.4% 11.3% 12.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.7% 13.3% 13.0% 7.6% 1.7% 11.4% 3.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 9.6% 8.0% 5.4% 2.7% 7.6% 5.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.6% 5.8% 4.5% 3.2% 1.3% 3.8% 2.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062025 FERNAND 08/24/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062025 FERNAND 08/24/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 45 46 45 43 39 40 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 41 42 41 39 35 36 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 36 34 30 31 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 27 23 24 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT