* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * FERNAND AL062025 08/24/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 41 42 45 45 45 46 46 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 41 42 45 45 45 46 46 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 39 40 38 36 34 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 5 10 13 14 11 10 3 17 29 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 -4 -1 2 4 0 1 2 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 15 305 313 327 336 360 7 205 244 244 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.1 28.6 28.3 27.3 25.9 22.7 14.1 13.6 15.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 165 154 146 141 129 115 93 72 72 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.6 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 47 43 43 46 53 58 48 41 39 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 12 12 12 11 9 8 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -62 -52 -70 -81 -88 -44 -24 -48 -67 -86 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -29 -14 -1 -24 -36 26 41 55 27 14 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 12 17 8 17 17 24 13 10 -38 -82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1198 1342 1407 1311 1219 1048 843 602 369 643 1133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.1 30.4 31.6 32.7 33.7 35.9 38.5 41.2 44.4 47.4 50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.0 60.6 60.2 59.7 59.3 58.3 56.5 53.5 49.6 44.1 37.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 11 13 16 19 23 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 22 16 12 9 9 8 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 13 CX,CY: 3/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 10. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -11. -16. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 7. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 29.1 61.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062025 FERNAND 08/24/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.72 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.66 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.04 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.1 30.0 to 151.8 0.58 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.65 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 12.6% 8.6% 6.5% 5.1% 9.6% 10.5% 17.8% Logistic: 4.2% 10.1% 8.4% 3.5% 0.8% 3.7% 3.8% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 7.6% 5.7% 3.3% 2.0% 4.4% 4.8% 6.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.1% 5.3% 3.8% 2.1% 1.0% 2.2% 2.4% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062025 FERNAND 08/24/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062025 FERNAND 08/24/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 41 42 45 45 45 46 46 45 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 36 39 40 43 43 43 44 44 43 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 35 38 38 38 39 39 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 29 29 29 30 30 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT