* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * FERNAND AL062025 08/23/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 48 52 59 61 58 60 59 55 50 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 48 52 59 61 58 60 59 55 50 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 48 52 53 52 50 45 40 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 6 6 10 12 17 16 14 7 20 48 62 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 -1 -6 0 0 0 -3 -1 7 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 27 18 343 312 313 332 342 342 327 261 257 271 285 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.5 28.4 27.7 26.0 23.0 14.6 13.6 14.9 16.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 166 168 169 161 143 134 116 96 73 72 74 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 3 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 50 50 51 49 49 54 58 48 42 37 37 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 12 12 12 11 9 9 7 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -43 -61 -56 -73 -86 -47 -35 -68 -55 -16 10 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 5 -22 9 7 -27 16 28 48 30 18 15 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 7 9 14 16 18 27 34 26 -9 -51 -23 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 912 1031 1150 1285 1420 1239 1038 831 613 314 630 1194 1204 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 11 12 12 11 14 17 22 26 26 28 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 29 26 23 19 11 9 8 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 17 CX,CY: 0/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 367 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 14. 15. 18. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -5. -9. -14. -18. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 24. 26. 23. 25. 24. 20. 15. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 26.6 61.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062025 FERNAND 08/23/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.78 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.68 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.17 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.67 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 20.2% 12.5% 9.6% 7.5% 12.4% 13.0% 20.3% Logistic: 10.9% 31.4% 23.0% 16.0% 6.2% 22.6% 24.0% 3.0% Bayesian: 2.1% 8.7% 2.7% 1.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 20.1% 12.7% 8.9% 4.6% 11.8% 12.4% 7.8% DTOPS: 4.0% 14.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 5.1% 17.0% 9.3% 5.4% 2.8% 6.4% 6.2% 4.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062025 FERNAND 08/23/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062025 FERNAND 08/23/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 43 48 52 59 61 58 60 59 55 50 48 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 38 43 47 54 56 53 55 54 50 45 43 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 40 47 49 46 48 47 43 38 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 36 38 35 37 36 32 27 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT