* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL902025 08/23/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 41 45 51 57 60 60 58 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 41 45 51 57 60 60 58 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 41 46 49 50 50 49 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 5 6 3 6 9 11 8 7 20 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 2 2 -3 0 -2 -4 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 23 48 53 357 321 321 337 333 302 244 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.2 28.2 26.6 26.5 22.6 16.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 162 164 168 156 140 122 122 93 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 3 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 53 51 52 52 51 55 58 52 42 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 9 9 10 11 10 10 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -66 -49 -46 -65 -64 -80 -68 -30 -29 -52 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 30 3 -10 -1 -35 5 48 35 40 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 5 9 14 9 22 14 18 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 749 861 974 1097 1219 1346 1147 934 709 427 194 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 11 11 11 11 13 16 19 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 36 31 27 23 16 11 10 8 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):342/ 16 CX,CY: -4/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 468 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 10. 10. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 21. 27. 30. 30. 28. 28. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 25.2 62.2 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902025 INVEST 08/23/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.83 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.20 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 196.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.72 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -29.7 to 189.2 0.19 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 30.0 to 151.8 0.70 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 17.2% 11.8% 9.0% 7.1% 12.5% 14.0% 23.4% Logistic: 11.3% 34.6% 25.9% 19.4% 7.7% 39.1% 41.6% 27.2% Bayesian: 6.6% 10.8% 5.5% 1.8% 0.1% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 7.5% 20.9% 14.4% 10.1% 5.0% 17.9% 18.7% 16.9% DTOPS: 2.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 4.7% 13.4% 8.2% 5.5% 2.5% 9.4% 9.3% 8.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902025 INVEST 08/23/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902025 INVEST 08/23/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 41 45 51 57 60 60 58 58 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 33 36 40 46 52 55 55 53 53 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 39 45 48 48 46 46 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 30 36 39 39 37 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT