* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL902025 08/23/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 34 41 47 49 51 53 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 34 41 47 49 51 53 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 30 34 36 36 36 36 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 2 7 8 5 10 13 11 11 5 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -3 0 -2 0 0 -2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 346 15 40 54 26 347 359 31 355 195 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.9 28.8 28.3 26.2 25.9 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 159 160 162 168 149 143 118 115 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.7 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 7 4 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 54 54 54 53 53 58 54 46 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 8 8 10 10 8 7 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -70 -69 -59 -57 -74 -77 -98 -54 -38 -42 -56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 26 30 -2 -12 -11 -9 26 28 59 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 5 4 5 8 11 13 5 19 8 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 580 682 792 897 1002 1278 1300 1108 842 644 402 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 11 12 11 14 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 43 38 35 30 22 15 11 10 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 13 CX,CY: -6/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 6. 10. 13. 13. 14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -3. -4. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 16. 22. 24. 26. 28. 27. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.5 62.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902025 INVEST 08/23/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.87 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.25 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.75 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.20 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.4 30.0 to 151.8 0.73 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 14.1% 9.6% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 7.9% 4.5% 2.1% 0.5% 7.5% 15.1% 18.4% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 7.6% 4.8% 3.1% 0.2% 2.6% 9.1% 6.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.7% 3.8% 2.4% 1.5% 0.1% 1.3% 4.5% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902025 INVEST 08/23/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902025 INVEST 08/23/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 31 34 41 47 49 51 53 52 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 32 39 45 47 49 51 50 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 33 39 41 43 45 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 31 33 35 37 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT