* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL902025 08/23/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 41 47 51 52 53 53 52 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 41 47 51 52 53 53 52 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 41 41 41 41 40 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 3 1 5 6 4 6 10 9 3 10 35 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -1 -3 -5 1 -1 1 0 0 3 9 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 93 42 360 49 71 39 49 15 41 63 227 221 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.9 28.9 28.2 26.4 26.0 18.2 11.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 158 160 164 168 151 141 120 118 79 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.8 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 4 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 55 55 55 56 55 60 60 50 43 38 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 6 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -64 -68 -70 -66 -57 -75 -91 -85 -53 -40 -41 -5 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 27 26 29 -1 5 -20 0 44 54 44 21 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 5 6 4 5 10 5 19 3 14 0 14 -74 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 521 612 701 797 896 1095 1304 1221 1019 817 592 214 330 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 10 9 9 10 12 14 17 21 25 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 43 42 38 35 27 20 15 12 10 3 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 16 CX,CY: -7/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 6. 11. 14. 15. 15. 17. 23. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 16. 15. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 22. 26. 27. 28. 28. 27. 28. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.7 61.3 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902025 INVEST 08/23/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.92 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.26 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.75 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.24 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.3 30.0 to 151.8 0.73 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 16.8% 11.4% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 14.6% 0.0% Logistic: 6.7% 34.8% 28.2% 17.8% 6.1% 29.6% 35.2% 46.6% Bayesian: 1.7% 2.2% 2.5% 0.2% 0.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.2% Consensus: 3.9% 17.9% 14.1% 8.9% 2.1% 10.3% 16.7% 15.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.4% 10.4% 7.5% 4.4% 1.0% 5.1% 8.3% 7.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902025 INVEST 08/23/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902025 INVEST 08/23/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 34 41 47 51 52 53 53 52 53 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 39 45 49 50 51 51 50 51 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 34 40 44 45 46 46 45 46 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 31 35 36 37 37 36 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT