* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL902025 08/22/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 33 40 50 56 58 60 64 67 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 33 40 50 56 58 60 64 67 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 43 45 47 49 50 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 4 3 2 2 3 4 4 6 10 8 25 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 0 -2 -1 1 2 0 -2 -3 1 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 44 68 341 336 7 38 82 352 5 320 257 243 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.5 28.4 27.0 26.8 19.2 13.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 156 157 157 159 162 164 161 144 127 126 81 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.4 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 4 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 55 54 53 52 54 56 61 57 47 40 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 7 8 8 11 11 9 8 10 11 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -60 -73 -74 -63 -72 -83 -99 -49 -34 -34 -6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 34 18 16 23 5 -6 -20 42 33 53 33 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 4 6 8 6 6 7 10 1 24 -6 -44 -81 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 436 495 574 672 779 959 1143 1275 1108 857 597 317 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 10 9 10 12 14 18 22 23 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 42 44 43 39 31 25 17 13 13 5 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 15 CX,CY: -8/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 7. 12. 15. 17. 17. 18. 24. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 16. 14. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 2. 2. -1. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 15. 25. 31. 33. 35. 39. 42. 44. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 21.4 60.4 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902025 INVEST 08/22/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 46.9 to 6.8 0.90 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.27 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.74 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.25 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.73 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.89 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 16.5% 11.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 19.0% 14.0% 7.6% 1.9% 15.7% 20.9% 38.9% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 2.4% 12.1% 8.7% 5.3% 0.6% 5.4% 11.8% 13.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902025 INVEST 08/22/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902025 INVEST 08/22/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 30 33 40 50 56 58 60 64 67 69 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 31 38 48 54 56 58 62 65 67 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 34 44 50 52 54 58 61 63 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 35 41 43 45 49 52 54 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT