* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL902025 08/22/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 42 52 59 61 63 67 69 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 42 52 59 61 63 67 69 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 30 35 41 45 48 50 52 55 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 7 6 3 3 5 5 7 4 4 3 20 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -3 -1 -1 -2 0 1 3 5 0 -1 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 8 35 54 7 328 52 33 51 48 358 285 240 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.5 29.7 29.4 28.2 27.2 24.5 17.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 149 151 149 152 160 164 159 142 130 105 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 4 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 54 54 56 56 55 56 58 61 61 53 43 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 10 13 13 12 12 13 14 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -38 -51 -66 -69 -61 -75 -83 -85 -51 -21 -33 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 35 36 18 11 20 4 -17 -6 41 43 43 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 5 3 6 9 6 7 7 13 6 25 7 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 345 393 448 537 620 804 1012 1244 1252 1047 750 518 191 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 10 10 10 10 12 16 20 21 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 46 44 45 45 38 29 22 15 13 11 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 7. 12. 16. 18. 18. 18. 21. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 16. 16. 14. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 17. 27. 34. 36. 38. 42. 44. 45. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.0 59.6 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902025 INVEST 08/22/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.86 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.29 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.75 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.24 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 30.0 to 151.8 0.69 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.89 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 16.1% 11.0% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 14.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 10.7% 6.9% 2.5% 0.6% 6.4% 11.4% 27.3% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.8% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 2.0% 9.2% 6.4% 3.6% 0.2% 2.3% 8.6% 9.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% SDCON: 1.5% 6.1% 3.7% 1.8% 0.1% 1.1% 4.3% 6.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902025 INVEST 08/22/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902025 INVEST 08/22/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 33 42 52 59 61 63 67 69 70 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 40 50 57 59 61 65 67 68 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 35 45 52 54 56 60 62 63 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 27 37 44 46 48 52 54 55 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT