* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL902025 08/22/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 42 51 60 64 67 65 66 68 63 56 55 54 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 42 51 60 64 67 65 66 68 63 56 55 54 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 45 48 51 53 54 55 52 46 44 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 1 3 7 7 6 10 13 16 14 17 14 20 21 12 10 4 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -3 -1 -2 -5 -3 -3 2 0 -1 0 -2 -2 1 7 SHEAR DIR 328 12 30 46 352 359 27 58 76 82 55 26 37 72 111 210 240 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.4 28.7 28.3 27.8 27.0 25.8 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 146 145 145 146 148 152 156 161 159 147 141 135 126 116 86 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.8 -54.3 -54.5 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 9 8 7 5 4 2 0 700-500 MB RH 59 59 57 56 55 54 54 54 55 58 61 58 56 60 63 64 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 6 6 9 10 12 12 13 12 13 16 13 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 9 -11 -30 -51 -64 -72 -91 -98 -114 -125 -80 -26 -43 -43 -46 -57 -76 200 MB DIV 7 4 15 20 0 16 8 6 -1 28 1 37 26 33 18 49 43 700-850 TADV 4 6 7 3 4 4 4 3 5 -1 6 5 6 3 -1 -13 -1 LAND (KM) 339 275 291 319 356 470 616 795 963 1161 1265 1281 1253 1227 1090 789 579 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.3 20.1 20.8 21.4 22.9 24.3 25.9 27.4 29.2 31.0 32.4 33.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.7 59.8 60.7 61.5 62.2 63.4 64.1 64.7 65.0 64.7 63.3 61.4 59.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 11 11 10 10 12 16 22 28 HEAT CONTENT 52 51 50 49 47 47 43 35 28 25 18 15 10 8 7 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. 26. 24. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 1. 2. 5. 1. -5. -7. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 17. 26. 35. 39. 42. 40. 41. 43. 38. 31. 30. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.6 58.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902025 INVEST 08/22/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 46.9 to 6.8 0.83 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.32 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 162.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.76 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.18 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 30.0 to 151.8 0.68 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 14.9% 10.2% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 19.7% 12.9% 6.4% 2.6% 10.0% 15.3% 30.4% Bayesian: 0.7% 4.6% 1.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 3.7% Consensus: 2.6% 13.1% 8.2% 4.7% 0.9% 3.6% 9.6% 11.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.3% 7.0% 4.6% 2.8% 0.4% 1.8% 4.8% 5.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902025 INVEST 08/22/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902025 INVEST 08/22/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 33 42 51 60 64 67 65 66 68 63 56 55 54 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 40 49 58 62 65 63 64 66 61 54 53 52 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 35 44 53 57 60 58 59 61 56 49 48 47 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 27 36 45 49 52 50 51 53 48 41 40 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT