* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL902025 08/22/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 33 36 46 56 66 71 76 79 80 83 81 74 72 73 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 33 36 46 56 66 71 76 79 80 83 81 74 72 73 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 32 38 44 50 56 61 66 70 71 65 55 48 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 1 2 6 8 11 6 10 8 13 9 14 13 4 11 15 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 2 0 -2 1 0 1 1 0 -1 0 2 0 0 8 7 SHEAR DIR 348 51 15 11 21 328 357 352 6 10 43 352 333 270 253 231 279 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.3 28.3 26.5 27.1 15.0 18.2 17.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 147 144 144 148 150 155 160 159 143 122 130 75 82 81 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -53.4 -54.3 -54.6 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.6 -0.3 -0.5 -0.9 -1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 7 5 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 60 59 57 55 55 54 55 56 60 63 59 53 50 46 44 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 9 8 11 13 16 16 19 19 20 24 23 15 12 8 850 MB ENV VOR 26 13 -6 -27 -43 -60 -65 -89 -85 -107 -81 -37 10 15 -2 -43 -71 200 MB DIV 29 17 10 23 36 26 39 11 -5 4 36 31 74 30 29 25 -34 700-850 TADV 0 3 7 2 0 5 4 4 5 6 9 30 23 28 1 13 21 LAND (KM) 447 328 248 246 276 358 516 699 912 1130 1092 1042 958 808 476 840 1564 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.2 18.9 19.7 20.4 21.8 23.4 25.0 26.9 29.2 31.9 34.5 36.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.5 58.7 59.8 60.8 61.6 63.2 64.3 65.2 65.7 65.9 64.8 62.3 58.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 10 10 13 16 17 19 24 31 35 36 HEAT CONTENT 51 53 53 52 50 48 45 40 30 26 16 13 9 5 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 10. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 8. 12. 12. 13. 17. 14. 2. -3. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 11. 21. 31. 41. 46. 51. 54. 55. 58. 56. 49. 47. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.7 57.5 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902025 INVEST 08/22/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 46.9 to 6.8 0.86 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.33 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 158.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.76 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -29.7 to 189.2 0.24 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 30.0 to 151.8 0.70 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 18.0% 12.2% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 20.5% 12.1% 4.9% 2.0% 8.7% 9.6% 22.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 7.0% 3.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 1.3% Consensus: 2.9% 15.2% 9.3% 4.7% 0.7% 3.2% 8.1% 7.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 11.0% SDCON: 1.9% 9.6% 5.1% 2.3% 0.3% 2.1% 4.5% 9.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902025 INVEST 08/22/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902025 INVEST 08/22/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 33 36 46 56 66 71 76 79 80 83 81 74 72 73 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 34 44 54 64 69 74 77 78 81 79 72 70 71 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 28 38 48 58 63 68 71 72 75 73 66 64 65 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 28 38 48 53 58 61 62 65 63 56 54 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT