* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST AL902025 08/21/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 42 53 65 73 78 81 82 82 86 88 84 76 73 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 42 53 65 73 78 81 82 82 86 88 84 76 73 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 33 39 48 56 64 70 75 80 83 82 71 59 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 3 1 5 4 7 8 10 12 8 6 9 9 9 16 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 0 2 0 0 -1 -1 1 0 -1 -3 -1 1 1 2 7 SHEAR DIR 181 171 212 269 14 304 320 345 349 341 24 355 2 315 221 227 241 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.4 29.5 29.2 28.3 26.4 26.8 17.3 18.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 150 148 146 144 145 148 151 158 161 156 143 121 126 78 81 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -52.8 -54.1 -54.8 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.5 -0.3 -0.4 -1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 6 4 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 54 57 59 57 54 53 53 52 54 57 60 64 59 53 44 41 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 11 13 15 16 18 19 20 23 26 23 15 11 850 MB ENV VOR 29 25 12 -11 -32 -57 -66 -73 -86 -101 -97 -64 -18 28 26 1 -33 200 MB DIV 26 26 4 -5 23 23 41 25 -1 -4 44 32 64 49 36 50 20 700-850 TADV -1 0 6 7 0 5 4 1 10 7 -1 10 12 18 11 2 -4 LAND (KM) 550 419 299 238 262 320 450 621 816 986 1112 1091 1042 934 792 443 724 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.0 18.6 19.3 20.0 21.3 22.8 24.3 26.0 27.8 30.0 32.3 34.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.5 57.8 59.1 60.3 61.2 62.9 64.2 65.1 65.7 66.1 65.9 64.6 62.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 12 11 10 9 8 9 10 12 14 15 19 22 28 33 HEAT CONTENT 47 51 52 52 51 49 46 40 35 28 23 15 13 9 5 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 25. 26. 27. 27. 26. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 14. 15. 11. 0. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 7. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 28. 40. 48. 53. 56. 57. 57. 61. 63. 59. 51. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.5 56.5 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902025 INVEST 08/21/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 46.9 to 6.8 0.89 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.33 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 158.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.76 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -29.7 to 189.2 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.7 30.0 to 151.8 0.71 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 31.6% 18.2% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 15.7% 0.0% Logistic: 16.6% 42.7% 33.6% 18.3% 8.6% 22.4% 27.5% 29.2% Bayesian: 2.8% 37.4% 16.3% 3.4% 2.1% 7.0% 4.3% 2.3% Consensus: 8.3% 37.2% 22.7% 10.6% 3.6% 9.8% 15.8% 10.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902025 INVEST 08/21/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902025 INVEST 08/21/2025 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 32 37 42 53 65 73 78 81 82 82 86 88 84 76 73 18HR AGO 25 24 28 33 38 49 61 69 74 77 78 78 82 84 80 72 69 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 31 42 54 62 67 70 71 71 75 77 73 65 62 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 31 43 51 56 59 60 60 64 66 62 54 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT