* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/13/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 44 48 51 60 69 74 82 84 86 93 97 100 103 107 110 V (KT) LAND 40 41 44 48 51 60 69 74 82 84 86 93 97 100 103 107 110 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 43 46 49 57 67 75 83 85 84 86 91 96 103 109 112 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 9 11 7 9 8 13 17 24 26 20 7 14 6 9 7 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 -2 -2 -5 -1 -4 -6 -7 -2 -4 2 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 40 52 61 61 38 24 347 338 316 317 314 319 334 52 324 316 279 SST (C) 26.9 27.1 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.9 28.4 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.9 30.0 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 125 127 132 134 137 137 144 152 155 156 157 156 156 156 168 169 156 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 56 58 58 58 57 59 61 58 59 62 60 59 60 62 64 63 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 17 17 18 19 19 22 23 23 26 29 31 35 38 40 850 MB ENV VOR 123 118 110 95 86 69 62 51 50 40 17 11 33 67 74 94 72 200 MB DIV -9 6 0 -3 12 26 31 34 31 52 3 22 29 66 50 32 56 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -9 -7 -10 -4 0 -2 5 14 20 28 LAND (KM) 1649 1542 1445 1359 1214 957 768 482 297 282 328 471 541 683 834 945 804 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.5 16.6 17.3 18.2 19.0 19.9 20.8 21.7 22.7 24.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.7 44.3 45.8 47.2 48.7 51.6 54.5 57.4 60.2 62.6 64.6 66.2 67.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 14 14 15 14 14 13 11 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 14 19 22 25 33 37 44 46 46 49 45 43 40 34 25 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 5. 4. 8. 10. 12. 16. 19. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 11. 20. 29. 34. 42. 44. 46. 53. 57. 60. 63. 67. 70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.4 42.7 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/13/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 46.9 to 6.8 0.78 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 221.8 895.4 to -69.3 0.70 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.14 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.3 30.0 to 151.8 0.48 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 14.7% 10.0% 7.8% 6.4% 11.8% 15.0% 24.5% Logistic: 3.6% 10.5% 7.9% 3.1% 1.2% 5.2% 6.0% 14.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 7.5% Consensus: 2.2% 8.6% 6.2% 3.6% 2.5% 5.8% 7.1% 15.4% DTOPS: 3.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 13.0% 9.0% SDCON: 2.6% 7.3% 5.1% 2.8% 1.7% 4.4% 10.0% 12.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/13/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/13/2025 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 44 48 51 60 69 74 82 84 86 93 97 100 103 107 110 18HR AGO 40 39 42 46 49 58 67 72 80 82 84 91 95 98 101 105 108 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 43 52 61 66 74 76 78 85 89 92 95 99 102 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 42 51 56 64 66 68 75 79 82 85 89 92 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT