* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/13/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 48 52 60 69 75 81 83 85 89 93 97 98 102 105 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 48 52 60 69 75 81 83 85 89 93 97 98 102 105 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 43 46 50 57 66 75 82 86 87 86 88 92 98 103 106 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 9 11 10 11 10 15 17 23 22 13 11 12 9 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -2 -5 -2 -4 -3 -9 -1 -1 0 8 3 5 SHEAR DIR 63 50 60 65 60 30 354 345 327 324 319 341 335 1 349 354 304 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.2 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.5 30.1 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 127 130 133 136 142 150 154 154 156 156 156 157 160 171 164 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.0 -51.4 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.4 1.3 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 60 58 60 59 60 60 61 59 59 61 62 65 66 69 70 68 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 16 17 18 19 20 20 22 24 28 30 34 36 850 MB ENV VOR 129 117 115 105 94 72 65 56 53 41 27 26 18 37 48 74 96 200 MB DIV -19 -8 4 0 0 21 22 41 8 37 18 29 30 52 46 100 47 700-850 TADV -1 1 1 0 0 0 -2 -1 -8 -14 -7 -10 -4 6 2 16 12 LAND (KM) 1781 1667 1550 1461 1384 1118 869 606 376 276 255 385 484 613 774 914 777 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.5 16.3 16.4 16.4 17.0 17.8 18.6 19.4 20.2 21.0 22.0 23.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.0 42.5 44.0 45.4 46.9 49.8 52.9 56.1 58.7 61.3 63.8 65.7 67.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 14 15 16 14 13 12 11 9 9 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 7 11 14 17 21 28 35 41 45 46 49 49 46 41 36 28 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. 28. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 10. 12. 15. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 29. 35. 41. 43. 45. 49. 53. 57. 58. 62. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.6 41.0 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/13/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 46.9 to 6.8 0.78 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 197.4 895.4 to -69.3 0.72 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 -29.7 to 189.2 0.11 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.8 30.0 to 151.8 0.45 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 14.9% 10.3% 8.2% 6.7% 11.9% 14.4% 24.2% Logistic: 4.9% 13.9% 10.8% 6.3% 3.0% 8.8% 7.5% 14.2% Bayesian: 0.6% 3.5% 1.6% 0.2% 0.2% 1.2% 0.5% 12.5% Consensus: 2.9% 10.8% 7.6% 4.9% 3.3% 7.3% 7.5% 17.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 9.0% 6.0% 5.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 11.0% SDCON: 3.4% 9.9% 6.8% 4.9% 2.1% 5.1% 5.2% 14.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/13/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/13/2025 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 45 48 52 60 69 75 81 83 85 89 93 97 98 102 105 18HR AGO 40 39 42 45 49 57 66 72 78 80 82 86 90 94 95 99 102 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 43 51 60 66 72 74 76 80 84 88 89 93 96 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 34 42 51 57 63 65 67 71 75 79 80 84 87 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT