* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * ERIN AL052025 08/13/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 49 52 61 70 77 83 90 93 98 103 104 105 112 118 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 49 52 61 70 77 83 90 93 98 103 104 105 112 118 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 43 46 50 58 67 76 85 93 96 97 98 100 104 112 119 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 8 12 13 12 9 12 11 17 16 18 5 11 7 14 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -4 -3 -3 -2 -4 0 -1 0 -8 -1 -2 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 71 65 55 52 47 26 9 351 343 299 292 298 2 323 305 284 265 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.8 27.9 28.4 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.9 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 125 127 131 136 137 144 152 154 156 157 157 156 156 168 170 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 60 59 56 58 58 59 57 58 57 56 58 58 62 61 63 59 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 14 14 15 17 18 18 21 22 23 26 26 27 34 37 850 MB ENV VOR 141 136 121 118 110 92 75 73 66 65 65 56 90 90 92 111 125 200 MB DIV 4 -19 -10 -4 3 20 23 36 27 24 34 -5 5 23 55 44 14 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 0 -2 -1 0 -8 -4 -10 -4 0 3 1 4 1 LAND (KM) 1919 1785 1657 1556 1462 1234 964 758 439 252 236 310 466 558 676 803 880 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 16.7 16.5 16.5 16.4 16.9 17.6 18.2 18.9 19.6 20.4 21.5 22.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.3 41.0 42.7 44.1 45.5 48.6 51.7 54.6 57.8 60.5 62.8 64.9 66.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 15 13 14 15 15 15 14 12 11 11 10 8 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 5 7 11 14 18 24 32 37 46 47 48 51 47 43 40 34 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 399 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 29. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 7. 8. 10. 9. 10. 17. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 21. 30. 37. 43. 50. 53. 58. 63. 64. 65. 72. 78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.8 39.3 ** 2025 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052025 ERIN 08/13/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 46.9 to 6.8 0.78 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 206.6 895.4 to -69.3 0.71 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.2 -29.7 to 189.2 0.11 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.9 30.0 to 151.8 0.44 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 14.4% 10.0% 8.1% 6.6% 11.8% 13.7% 23.6% Logistic: 3.4% 13.2% 9.7% 6.5% 3.7% 10.4% 6.9% 15.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 0.4% 8.7% Consensus: 2.2% 9.8% 6.8% 4.9% 3.5% 7.7% 7.0% 16.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% SDCON: 2.1% 6.9% 4.9% 3.9% 2.2% 4.3% 4.0% 9.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052025 ERIN 08/13/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052025 ERIN 08/13/2025 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 45 49 52 61 70 77 83 90 93 98 103 104 105 112 118 18HR AGO 40 39 42 46 49 58 67 74 80 87 90 95 100 101 102 109 115 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 43 52 61 68 74 81 84 89 94 95 96 103 109 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 42 51 58 64 71 74 79 84 85 86 93 99 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT